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Orlando MagicMoritz Wagner
#21 · F-C · 6-11 · 245 lb · 26 games
Stats updated: Apr 8, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- 2018 · Rd 1, Pick 25
- College
- Michigan
- Country
- Germany
- Experience
- 8 seasons
Top reads — this player & matchup
pick one to load it belowRanked by FireFactor for the next matchup, straight from the game logs.
Line
Points · season avg 8.1 PTSSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 7.5 PTSPointsCool underFireFactor 42/100· model 60% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)87supports it
Projection vs line60neutral
Consistency28argues against it
Projection
6.7 PTS(×1.00 context)
L5 6.2 · L10 5.5 · med 6.5
Consistency
Variable
floor 5.0 · ceil 12.0
Matchup
D
defense vs role
Recent history runs under on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
0%over
0 over · 5 under
Medium confidence95% CI 0%–43%Last 1010 games
0%over
0 over · 10 under
Medium confidence95% CI 0%–28%Last 2020 games
35%over
7 over · 13 under
Medium confidence95% CI 18%–57%Season26 games
42%over
11 over · 15 under
Medium confidence95% CI 26%–61%Alternate lines — Points (PTS)
PTS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 88% | 23/26 | ||
| 77% | 20/26 | ||
| 69% | 18/26 | ||
| 7.5Current | 42% | 11/26 | |
| 38% | 10/26 | ||
| 31% | 8/26 | ||
| 27% | 7/26 |
Situational splits
Over 7.5 PTS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home62%8/13Low
Away23%3/13Medium
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)25%1/4Low
1 day40%6/15Medium
2 days50%1/2Low
3+ days75%3/4Low
Last matchup — @ TOR
Mar 29, 2026
25thof 30 in PTS allowed to forwards
TOR allows 13.1 PTS per game to forwards (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 171 player-games
ToughThe read
Over his last 10 games, Moritz Wagner has gone over 7.5 PTS 0 of 10 decided times (0%) — versus 42% across the full season. TOR has been a tough matchup for forwards this season, allowing the 25th-most PTS of 30 teams (13.1 per game). His game-to-game PTS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 3.5), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 42%.