Golden State Warriors

Moses Moody Turnovers

Stats updated: Mar 23, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Moses Moody has gone over 1.5 TOV in 4 of his last 10 decided games (40%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: 2021 · Rd 1, Pick 14
College: Arkansas
Country: USA
Experience: 5 seasons

Line

PrizePicksTurnovers · season avg 1.3 TOV · our line

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OutMoses Moody isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Injury:: Left Knee Surgery
Est. return:: Dec 1, 2026

The diagnosis ends Moody's season, and he'll require a long recovery period. Through 60 regular-season appearances, the fifth-year swingman averaged a career-high 12.1 points, 3.3 rebounds, 1.6 assists and 1.0 steals in 25.7 minutes per game. With Moody's campaign now over, De'Anthony Melton and Gary Payton should continue to help pick up the slack in the Golden State backcourt down the stretch.

Verdict

vs 1.5 TOVTurnovers

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 58% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)78supports it

Projection vs line58neutral

Consistency0argues against it

Projection

1.4 TOV(×1.04 context)

L5 1.4 · L10 1.1 · med 1.0

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 0.0 · ceil 2.0

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 55 games

60%over

3 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%

Last 1010 games

40%over

4 over · 6 under

Low confidence95% CI 17%–69%

Last 2020 games

40%over

8 over · 12 under

Medium confidence95% CI 22%–61%

Season20 games

40%over

8 over · 12 under

Medium confidence95% CI 22%–61%

Alternate lines — Turnovers (TOV)

TOV over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate TOV line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	70%	14/20
1.5Current	40%	8/20
	15%	3/20
	0%	0/20
	0%	0/20

Last 20 games — TOV per game vs. line 1.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 1.5 TOV by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home22%2/9Low

Away55%6/11Low

Days since last game

0 days (B2B)100%2/2Low

1 day20%1/5Low

2 days50%1/2Low

3+ days40%4/10Low

With a teammate out

How this TOV line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.

Jimmy Butler III out · Right Knee Surgery+0.6 TOV when he sits

Without (9g)

1.6 TOV

56% over 1.5

With (11g)

1.0 TOV

27% over 1.5

Last matchup — @ DAL

Mar 23, 2026

24thof 30 in TOV allowed to guards

DAL allows 1.4 TOV per game to guards (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 210 player-games

Tough

The read

Over his last 10 games, Moses Moody has gone over 1.5 TOV 4 of 10 decided times (40%) — versus 40% across the full season. DAL has been a tough matchup for guards this season, allowing the 24th-most TOV of 30 teams (1.4 per game). His game-to-game TOV have been highly variable (σ ≈ 1.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 40%.