
Stats updated: Apr 3, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Nic Claxton has gone over 33.5 FS in 4 of his last 10 decided games (40%), measured against our typical-game line.
Splitter stopped short of confirming Claxton's availability, but the big man is certainly trending in the right direction. Once Claxton is cleared to make his Bulls debut, Jalen Smith (hand) is likely to fall into a reserve role.
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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FS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 59% | 27/46 | ||
| 54% | 25/46 | ||
| 54% | 25/46 | ||
| 33.5Current | 48% | 22/46 | |
| 39% | 18/46 | ||
| 35% | 16/46 | ||
| 35% | 16/46 |
Over 33.5 FS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
ATL allows 31.4 FS per game to centers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 12 player-games
FavorableOver his last 10 games, Nic Claxton has gone over 33.5 FS 4 of 10 decided times (40%) — versus 48% across the full season. ATL has been a favorable matchup for centers this season, allowing the 5th-most FS of 30 teams (31.4 per game). His game-to-game FS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 10.7), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 48%.
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Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.