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Oklahoma City ThunderNikola Topić
#44 · G · 6-6 · 200 lb · 2 games
Stats updated: Apr 12, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- 2024 · Rd 1, Pick 12
- College
- Crvena zvezda
- Country
- Serbia
- Experience
- 3 seasons
Line
Points · season avg 16.0 PTS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutNikola Topić isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Back
- Est. return:
- Nov 13, 2026
Topic has yet to play during the 2026-27 campaign, and at this rate, it doesn't look like he will be on the floor anytime soon. For now, he should be considered week-to-week. The 2024 No. 12 overall pick has appeared in only 10 regular-season games throughout his career, averaging 5.2 points, 1.9 rebounds and 4.4 assists while shooting 40.0 percent from deep over 16.0 minutes per contest.
Verdict
vs 15.5 PTSPointsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 33% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)50neutral
Projection vs line33argues against it
Consistency79supports it
Matchup25argues against it
Projection
14.0 PTS(×0.87 context)
L5 16.0 · L10 16.0 · med 16.0
Consistency
Steady
floor 14.8 · ceil 17.2
Matchup
D
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 52 games
50%over
1 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 9%–91%Last 102 games
50%over
1 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 9%–91%Last 202 games
50%over
1 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 9%–91%Season2 games
50%over
1 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 9%–91%Alternate lines — Points (PTS)
PTS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 100% | 2/2 | ||
| 100% | 2/2 | ||
| 50% | 1/2 | ||
| 15.5Current | 50% | 1/2 | |
| 50% | 1/2 | ||
| 50% | 1/2 | ||
| 0% | 0/2 |
Situational splits
Over 15.5 PTS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home100%1/1Low
Away0%0/1Low
Days since last game
1 day100%1/1Low
Next matchup — @ MEM
Nov 7, 2026
23rdof 30 in PTS allowed to guards
MEM allows 11.7 PTS per game to guards (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 23 player-games
ToughThe read
Over his last 2 games, Nikola Topić has gone over 15.5 PTS 1 of 2 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. MEM has been a tough matchup for guards this season, allowing the 23rd-most PTS of 30 teams (11.7 per game). His game-to-game PTS have been fairly steady (σ ≈ 2.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.