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Houston RocketsReed Sheppard
#15 · G · 6-2 · 185 lb · 44 games
Stats updated: Apr 12, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- 2024 · Rd 1, Pick 3
- College
- Kentucky
- Country
- USA
- Experience
- 2 seasons
Line
Points · season avg 16.0 PTSSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 15.5 PTSPointsNo readFireFactor 6/100· model 45% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)50neutral
Projection vs line45neutral
Consistency34argues against it
Projection
15.4 PTS(×0.95 context)
L5 17.8 · L10 16.1 · med 14.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 10.6 · ceil 20.0
Matchup
C
defense vs role
Recent history runs over on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 1010 games
40%over
4 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 17%–69%Last 2020 games
55%over
11 over · 9 under
Medium confidence95% CI 34%–74%Season44 games
50%over
22 over · 22 under
Medium confidence95% CI 36%–64%Alternate lines — Points (PTS)
PTS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 68% | 30/44 | ||
| 61% | 27/44 | ||
| 55% | 24/44 | ||
| 15.5Current | 50% | 22/44 | |
| 39% | 17/44 | ||
| 34% | 15/44 | ||
| 30% | 13/44 |
Situational splits
Over 15.5 PTS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home65%13/20Medium
Away38%9/24Medium
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)60%3/5Low
1 day47%7/15Low
2 days38%3/8Low
3+ days60%9/15Medium
Last matchup — vs MEM
Apr 12, 2026
19thof 30 in PTS allowed to guards
MEM allows 13.8 PTS per game to guards (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 226 player-games
NeutralThe read
Over his last 10 games, Reed Sheppard has gone over 15.5 PTS 4 of 10 decided times (40%) — versus 50% across the full season. MEM has been a middling matchup for guards this season, allowing the 19th-most PTS of 30 teams (13.8 per game). His game-to-game PTS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 6.4), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.