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New Orleans PelicansSaddiq Bey
#41 · G-F · 6-8 · 215 lb · 34 games
Stats updated: Apr 5, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- 2020 · Rd 1, Pick 19
- College
- Villanova
- Country
- USA
- Experience
- 6 seasons
Top reads — this player & matchup
pick one to load it belowRanked by FireFactor for the next matchup, straight from the game logs.
Line
Points · season avg 21.1 PTSSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 20.5 PTSPointsNo readFireFactor 6/100· model 45% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)59neutral
Projection vs line45neutral
Consistency52neutral
Projection
23.0 PTS(×1.03 context)
L5 22.2 · L10 21.5 · med 20.0
Consistency
Steady
floor 17.0 · ceil 24.4
Matchup
A
defense vs role
Recent history runs under on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
40%over
4 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 17%–69%Last 2020 games
50%over
10 over · 10 under
Medium confidence95% CI 30%–70%Season34 games
47%over
16 over · 18 under
Medium confidence95% CI 31%–63%Alternate lines — Points (PTS)
PTS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 76% | 26/34 | ||
| 68% | 23/34 | ||
| 59% | 20/34 | ||
| 20.5Current | 47% | 16/34 | |
| 44% | 15/34 | ||
| 29% | 10/34 | ||
| 26% | 9/34 |
Situational splits
Over 20.5 PTS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home47%9/19Medium
Away47%7/15Low
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)33%1/3Low
1 day40%6/15Medium
2 days60%3/5Low
3+ days50%5/10Low
Last matchup — vs ORL
Apr 5, 2026
1stof 30 in PTS allowed to guards
ORL allows 15.4 PTS per game to guards (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 235 player-games
FavorableThe read
Over his last 10 games, Saddiq Bey has gone over 20.5 PTS 4 of 10 decided times (40%) — versus 47% across the full season. ORL has been a favorable matchup for guards this season, allowing the 1st-most PTS of 30 teams (15.4 per game). His game-to-game PTS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 6.1), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 47%.