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Cleveland CavaliersThomas Bryant
#3 · C-F · 6-9 · 248 lb · 23 games
Stats updated: Apr 5, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- 2017 · Rd 2, Pick 42
- College
- Indiana
- Country
- USA
- Experience
- 9 seasons
Top reads — this player & matchup
pick one to load it belowRanked by FireFactor for the next matchup, straight from the game logs.
Line
Points · season avg 9.1 PTSSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 9.5 PTSPointsNo readFireFactor 11/100· model 62% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)60supports it
Projection vs line62supports it
Consistency35argues against it
Projection
10.7 PTS(×1.10 context)
L5 9.0 · L10 9.5 · med 11.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 6.4 · ceil 11.6
Matchup
D
defense vs role
Recent history runs over on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 1010 games
60%over
6 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 31%–83%Last 2020 games
55%over
11 over · 9 under
Medium confidence95% CI 34%–74%Season23 games
52%over
12 over · 11 under
Medium confidence95% CI 33%–71%Alternate lines — Points (PTS)
PTS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 78% | 18/23 | ||
| 70% | 16/23 | ||
| 61% | 14/23 | ||
| 9.5Current | 52% | 12/23 | |
| 39% | 9/23 | ||
| 22% | 5/23 | ||
| 17% | 4/23 |
Situational splits
Over 9.5 PTS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home50%5/10Low
Away54%7/13Low
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)100%2/2Low
1 day80%4/5Low
2 days100%2/2Low
3+ days31%4/13Medium
Last matchup — vs IND
Apr 5, 2026
22ndof 30 in PTS allowed to centers
IND allows 12.8 PTS per game to centers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 64 player-games
ToughThe read
Over his last 10 games, Thomas Bryant has gone over 9.5 PTS 6 of 10 decided times (60%) — versus 52% across the full season. IND has been a tough matchup for centers this season, allowing the 22nd-most PTS of 30 teams (12.8 per game). His game-to-game PTS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 3.5), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 52%.