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Atlanta HawksTony Bradley
#13 · C-F · 6-10 · 248 lb · 18 games
Stats updated: Apr 12, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- 2017 · Rd 1, Pick 28
- College
- North Carolina
- Country
- USA
- Experience
- 9 seasons
Line
Points · season avg 6.1 PTSSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 5.5 PTSPointsNo readFireFactor 7/100· model 62% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)61supports it
Projection vs line62supports it
Consistency15argues against it
Projection
6.6 PTS(×1.10 context)
L5 5.8 · L10 5.2 · med 4.5
Consistency
Variable
floor 4.0 · ceil 8.0
Matchup
C
defense vs role
Recent history runs over on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
40%over
4 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 17%–69%Last 2018 games
56%over
10 over · 8 under
Medium confidence95% CI 34%–75%Season18 games
56%over
10 over · 8 under
Medium confidence95% CI 34%–75%Alternate lines — Points (PTS)
PTS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 89% | 16/18 | ||
| 83% | 15/18 | ||
| 67% | 12/18 | ||
| 5.5Current | 56% | 10/18 | |
| 39% | 7/18 | ||
| 28% | 5/18 | ||
| 17% | 3/18 |
Situational splits
Over 5.5 PTS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home14%1/7Low
Away82%9/11Medium
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)100%2/2Low
1 day50%3/6Low
2 days67%2/3Low
3+ days33%2/6Low
Last matchup — @ MIA
Apr 12, 2026
18thof 30 in PTS allowed to centers
MIA allows 13.0 PTS per game to centers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 58 player-games
NeutralThe read
Over his last 10 games, Tony Bradley has gone over 5.5 PTS 4 of 10 decided times (40%) — versus 56% across the full season. MIA has been a middling matchup for centers this season, allowing the 18th-most PTS of 30 teams (13.0 per game). His game-to-game PTS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 3.1), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 56%.