Washington Wizards

Will Riley Points + Rebounds + Assists

Stats updated: Apr 12, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Will Riley has gone over 24.5 PRA in 4 of his last 10 decided games (40%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: 2025 · Rd 1, Pick 21
College: Illinois-Urbana-Champaign
Country: USA
Experience: Rookie

Line

Points + Rebounds + Assists · season avg 23.6 PRA

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Verdict

vs 24.5 PRAPoints + Rebounds + Assists

No readFireFactor 7/100· model 55% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)59neutral

Projection vs line55neutral

Consistency39argues against it

Projection

23.2 PRA(×0.99 context)

L5 25.2 · L10 25.6 · med 23.0

Consistency

Variable

floor 14.2 · ceil 30.8

Matchup

defense vs role

Recent history runs under on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 55 games

40%over

2 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%

Last 1010 games

40%over

4 over · 6 under

Low confidence95% CI 17%–69%

Last 2020 games

45%over

9 over · 11 under

Medium confidence95% CI 26%–66%

Season27 games

48%over

13 over · 14 under

Medium confidence95% CI 31%–66%

Alternate lines — Points + Rebounds + Assists (PRA)

PRA over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate PRA line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	59%	16/27
	56%	15/27
	56%	15/27
24.5Current	48%	13/27
	44%	12/27
	41%	11/27
	37%	10/27

Last 20 games — PRA per game vs. line 24.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 24.5 PRA by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home42%5/12Low

Away53%8/15Low

Days since last game

0 days (B2B)60%3/5Low

1 day36%5/14Medium

2 days50%1/2Low

3+ days60%3/5Low

Last matchup — @ CLE

Apr 12, 2026

8thof 30 in PRA allowed to forwards

CLE allows 22.7 PRA per game to forwards (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 149 player-games

Favorable

The read

Over his last 10 games, Will Riley has gone over 24.5 PRA 4 of 10 decided times (40%) — versus 48% across the full season. CLE has been a favorable matchup for forwards this season, allowing the 8th-most PRA of 30 teams (22.7 per game). His game-to-game PRA have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 8.7), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 48%.