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Chicago BullsYuki Kawamura
#8 · G · 5-7 · 159 lb · 8 games
Stats updated: Apr 12, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Japan
- Country
- Japan
- Experience
- 2 seasons
Line
Points · season avg 5.3 PTSSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 5.5 PTSPointsNo readFireFactor 17/100· model 61% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)86supports it
Projection vs line61supports it
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
5.7 PTS(×0.90 context)
L5 5.6 · L10 5.3 · med 5.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 3.0 · ceil 6.0
Matchup
A
defense vs role
Recent history runs under on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 108 games
38%over
3 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 14%–69%Last 208 games
38%over
3 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 14%–69%Season8 games
38%over
3 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 14%–69%Alternate lines — Points (PTS)
PTS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 88% | 7/8 | ||
| 63% | 5/8 | ||
| 63% | 5/8 | ||
| 5.5Current | 38% | 3/8 | |
| 13% | 1/8 | ||
| 13% | 1/8 | ||
| 13% | 1/8 |
Situational splits
Over 5.5 PTS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home0%0/2Low
Away50%3/6Low
Days since last game
1 day33%1/3Low
2 days100%1/1Low
3+ days0%0/3Low
Last matchup — @ DAL
Apr 12, 2026
5thof 30 in PTS allowed to guards
DAL allows 14.8 PTS per game to guards (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 210 player-games
FavorableThe read
Over his last 8 games, Yuki Kawamura has gone over 5.5 PTS 3 of 8 decided times (38%) — versus 38% across the full season. DAL has been a favorable matchup for guards this season, allowing the 5th-most PTS of 30 teams (14.8 per game). His game-to-game PTS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 3.8), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 38%.