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New Orleans SaintsAlvin Kamara
#41 · RB · 5' 10" · 215 lb · 8 games
Stats updated: Nov 23, 2025 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Tennessee
- Experience
- 11 seasons
Line
Rushing Yards · season avg 53.1 RUSH YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutAlvin Kamara isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Kamara is closing in on a new deal that will allow him to remain with the Saints, presumably by lowering the $10.4 million cap hit his current contract carries for the 2026 campaign. The soon-to-be 31-year-old has spent his entire NFL career to date in New Orleans and remains a versatile playmaker capable of contributing in a complementary role behind new starting running back Travis Etienne. Across 11 regular-season appearances in 2025, Kamara rushed 131 times for 471 yards and one score and secured 33 of 39 targets for 186 yards.
Verdict
vs 43.5 RUSH YDSRushing YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 45% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)51neutral
Projection vs line45neutral
Consistency19argues against it
Projection
49.9 RUSH YDS(×0.94 context)
L5 47.8 · L10 53.1 · med 43.5
Consistency
Variable
floor 29.2 · ceil 77.8
Matchup
C
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 108 games
50%over
4 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 22%–78%Last 208 games
50%over
4 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 22%–78%Season8 games
50%over
4 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 22%–78%Alternate lines — Rushing Yards (RUSH YDS)
RUSH YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 63% | 5/8 | ||
| 63% | 5/8 | ||
| 50% | 4/8 | ||
| 43.5Current | 50% | 4/8 | |
| 50% | 4/8 | ||
| 38% | 3/8 | ||
| 38% | 3/8 |
Situational splits
Over 43.5 RUSH YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home50%2/4Low
Away50%2/4Low
Days since last game
3+ days43%3/7Low
Last matchup — @ CAR
Nov 9, 2025
18thof 32 in RUSH YDS allowed to running backs
CAR allows 48.5 RUSH YDS per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 39 player-games
NeutralThe read
Over his last 8 games, Alvin Kamara has gone over 43.5 RUSH YDS 4 of 8 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. CAR has been a middling matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 18th-most RUSH YDS of 32 teams (48.5 per game). His game-to-game RUSH YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 25.7), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.