New Orleans Saints

Alvin Kamara Receptions

Stats updated: Nov 23, 2025 — nightly box scores, not live.

Alvin Kamara has gone over 3.5 REC in 4 of his last 8 decided games (50%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Tennessee
Experience: 11 seasons

Line

PrizePicksReceptions · season avg 3.5 REC · our line

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OutAlvin Kamara isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Kamara is closing in on a new deal that will allow him to remain with the Saints, presumably by lowering the $10.4 million cap hit his current contract carries for the 2026 campaign. The soon-to-be 31-year-old has spent his entire NFL career to date in New Orleans and remains a versatile playmaker capable of contributing in a complementary role behind new starting running back Travis Etienne. Across 11 regular-season appearances in 2025, Kamara rushed 131 times for 471 yards and one score and secured 33 of 39 targets for 186 yards.

Verdict

vs 3.5 RECReceptions

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 43% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)51neutral

Projection vs line43neutral

Consistency29argues against it

Projection

3.3 REC(×0.94 context)

L5 3.8 · L10 3.5 · med 3.5

Consistency

Variable

floor 2.4 · ceil 4.6

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 55 games

60%over

3 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%

Last 108 games

50%over

4 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 22%–78%

Last 208 games

50%over

4 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 22%–78%

Season8 games

50%over

4 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 22%–78%

Alternate lines — Receptions (REC)

REC over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate REC line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	100%	8/8
	88%	7/8
	75%	6/8
3.5Current	50%	4/8
	25%	2/8
	13%	1/8
	0%	0/8

Last 8 games — REC per game vs. line 3.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 3.5 REC by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home75%3/4Low

Away25%1/4Low

Days since last game

3+ days57%4/7Low

Last matchup — @ CAR

Nov 9, 2025

23rdof 32 in REC allowed to running backs

CAR allows 1.9 REC per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 39 player-games

Tough

The read

Over his last 8 games, Alvin Kamara has gone over 3.5 REC 4 of 8 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. CAR has been a tough matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 23rd-most REC of 32 teams (1.9 per game). His game-to-game REC have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 1.5), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.