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Detroit LionsAmon-Ra St. Brown
#14 · WR · 6' 0" · 202 lb · 7 games
Stats updated: Nov 1, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- USC
- Experience
- 7 seasons
Line
Receiving Yards · season avg 81.6 REC YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutAmon-Ra St. Brown isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
St. Brown set the pace across the board for the Lions in receptions, receiving yards and targets. St. Brown was playing through a rib issue that had limited him throughout the practice week, but he turned in an efficient effort that included his fifth straight game with six or more catches. St. Brown's touchdown drought did extend to five games, and he'll once again aim to snap it in next Sunday's Week 10 matchup against the Patriots in Germany.
Verdict
vs 68.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 56% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)71supports it
Projection vs line56neutral
Consistency7argues against it
Matchup50neutral
Projection
76.9 REC YDS(×0.94 context)
L5 72.4 · L10 81.6 · med 69.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 50.2 · ceil 128.6
Matchup
C
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 107 games
57%over
4 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%Last 207 games
57%over
4 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%Season7 games
57%over
4 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%Alternate lines — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
REC YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 71% | 5/7 | ||
| 71% | 5/7 | ||
| 57% | 4/7 | ||
| 68.5Current | 57% | 4/7 | |
| 43% | 3/7 | ||
| 43% | 3/7 | ||
| 43% | 3/7 |
Situational splits
Over 68.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home25%1/4Low
Away100%3/3Low
Days since last game
3+ days67%4/6Low
Next matchup — vs NE
Nov 15, 2026
15thof 32 in REC YDS allowed to wide receivers
NE allows 45.8 REC YDS per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 26 player-games
NeutralThe read
Over his last 7 games, Amon-Ra St. Brown has gone over 68.5 REC YDS 4 of 7 decided times (57%) — versus 57% across the full season. NE has been a middling matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 15th-most REC YDS of 32 teams (45.8 per game). His game-to-game REC YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 45.3), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
4 books @ 78.5 REC YDS- No-vig fair (over)
- 50.0%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 50.0%
Best Over
DraftKings-112
-5.4% EV
Best Under
DraftKings-112
-5.4% EV
Model vs market (over)+6.0%
Our model puts the over at 56.0% vs the market's no-vig 50.0%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
Each book’s line and your season over rate at that number, vs the market consensus (78.5 REC YDS). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
over rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 57%.