Detroit Lions

Amon-Ra St. Brown Receiving TDs

Stats updated: Sep 17, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Amon-Ra St. Brown has gone over 0.5 REC TD in 5 of his last 10 decided games (50%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: USC
Experience: 7 seasons

Line

PrizePicksReceiving TDs · season avg 0.9 REC TD · our line

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OutAmon-Ra St. Brown isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

The Lions played from behind all night, which had a role in St. Brown seeing massive volume on his way to game-high figures in receptions, receiving yards and targets. The star wideout recorded both his scoring grabs in the second half, capping off Detroit's opening drive of the third quarter with a two-yard touchdown and then providing the final points for either side when he hauled in a 27-yard strike from Jared Goff with 1:42 remaining. St. Brown has opened the season in signature fashion with consecutive two-TD tallies, and he'll next take aim at the Jets defense on the fast track of Ford Field on Sunday, Sept. 27.

Verdict

vs 0.5 REC TDReceiving TDs

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 65% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)57neutral

Projection vs line65supports it

Consistency0argues against it

Projection

1.3 REC TD(×1.19 context)

L5 0.8 · L10 0.8 · med 0.5

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 0.0 · ceil 2.0

Matchup

small sample

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 55 games

40%over

2 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%

Last 1010 games

50%over

5 over · 5 under

Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%

Last 2017 games

53%over

9 over · 8 under

Medium confidence95% CI 31%–74%

Season17 games

53%over

9 over · 8 under

Medium confidence95% CI 31%–74%

Alternate lines — Receiving TDs (REC TD)

REC TD over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate REC TD line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
0.5Current	53%	9/17
	29%	5/17
	6%	1/17
	0%	0/17

Last 17 games — REC TD per game vs. line 0.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 0.5 REC TD by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home63%5/8Low

Away44%4/9Low

Days since last game

3+ days50%8/16Medium

Next matchup — vs NYJ

Sep 27, 2026

14thof 32 in REC TD allowed to wide receivers

NYJ allows 0.3 REC TD per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 6 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution

Neutral

The read

Over his last 10 games, Amon-Ra St. Brown has gone over 0.5 REC TD 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 53% across the full season. NYJ has been a middling matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 14th-most REC TD of 32 teams (0.3 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game REC TD have been highly variable (σ ≈ 1.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 53%.