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Las Vegas RaidersAshton Jeanty
#2 · RB · 5' 8" · 208 lb · 16 games
Too few games this season to read on their own, so 14 of these 16 are carried over from last season. Expect this read to move as the season fills in.
Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Boise State
- Experience
- 3 seasons
Line
Rushing Yards · season avg 66.7 RUSH YDS · PrizePicks lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutAshton Jeanty isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Jeanty was the unquestioned leader of the Raiders' ground attack once again, and although he had to scratch and claw for every yard, the second-year back helped keep the Bolts' defense honest. Jeanty also finished second in receptions and tied for the team lead in targets, underscoring how central he is to what Las Vegas does on offense. Jeanty and his teammates will be gunning for a third consecutive victory to open the season when they tangle with the equally surprising Saints on the road next Sunday.
Verdict
vs 65.5 RUSH YDSRushing YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 53% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)87supports it
Projection vs line53neutral
Consistency22argues against it
Projection
70.9 RUSH YDS(×1.01 context)
L5 85.0 · L10 64.3 · med 55.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 42.0 · ceil 87.0
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 1010 games
30%over
3 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 11%–60%Last 2016 games
38%over
6 over · 10 under
Medium confidence95% CI 18%–61%Season16 games
38%over
6 over · 10 under
Medium confidence95% CI 18%–61%Alternate lines — Rushing Yards (RUSH YDS)
RUSH YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 44% | 7/16 | ||
| 38% | 6/16 | ||
| 38% | 6/16 | ||
| 65.5Current | 38% | 6/16 | |
| 38% | 6/16 | ||
| 31% | 5/16 | ||
| 31% | 5/16 |
Situational splits
Over 65.5 RUSH YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home50%4/8Low
Away25%2/8Low
Days since last game
3+ days40%6/15Medium
Next matchup — @ NO
Sep 27, 2026
2ndof 32 in RUSH YDS allowed to running backs
NO allows 76.7 RUSH YDS per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 3 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
FavorableThe read
Over his last 10 games, Ashton Jeanty has gone over 65.5 RUSH YDS 3 of 10 decided times (30%) — versus 38% across the full season. NO has been a favorable matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 2nd-most RUSH YDS of 32 teams (76.7 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game RUSH YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 31.2), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
3 books @ 64.5 RUSH YDS- No-vig fair (over)
- 50.0%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 50.0%
Best Over
Caesars-114
-6.1% EV
Best Under
BetRivers-113
-5.8% EV
Model vs market (over)-2.6%
Our model puts the over at 47.4% vs the market's no-vig 50.0%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Rushing Yards (RUSH YDS)
Each book’s line and your season under rate at that number, vs the market consensus (64.5 RUSH YDS). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
under rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 38%.