Las Vegas Raiders

Ashton Jeanty Targets

Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Ashton Jeanty has gone over 4.5 TGT in 8 of his last 10 decided games (80%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Boise State
Experience: 3 seasons

Line

PrizePicksTargets · season avg 4.6 TGT · our line

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OutAshton Jeanty isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Jeanty was the unquestioned leader of the Raiders' ground attack once again, and although he had to scratch and claw for every yard, the second-year back helped keep the Bolts' defense honest. Jeanty also finished second in receptions and tied for the team lead in targets, underscoring how central he is to what Las Vegas does on offense. Jeanty and his teammates will be gunning for a third consecutive victory to open the season when they tangle with the equally surprising Saints on the road next Sunday.

Verdict

vs 4.5 TGTTargets

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 58% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)76supports it

Projection vs line58neutral

Consistency14argues against it

Projection

5.2 TGT(×1.01 context)

L5 4.4 · L10 5.4 · med 5.5

Consistency

Variable

floor 2.0 · ceil 7.0

Matchup

small sample

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 55 games

60%over

3 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%

Last 1010 games

80%over

8 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 49%–94%

Last 2016 games

56%over

9 over · 7 under

Medium confidence95% CI 33%–77%

Season16 games

56%over

9 over · 7 under

Medium confidence95% CI 33%–77%

Alternate lines — Targets (TGT)

TGT over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate TGT line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	94%	15/16
	69%	11/16
	69%	11/16
4.5Current	56%	9/16
	38%	6/16
	25%	4/16
	13%	2/16

Last 16 games — TGT per game vs. line 4.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 4.5 TGT by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home50%4/8Low

Away63%5/8Low

Days since last game

3+ days60%9/15Medium

Next matchup — @ NO

Sep 27, 2026

12thof 32 in TGT allowed to running backs

NO allows 3.3 TGT per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 3 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution

Neutral

The read

Over his last 10 games, Ashton Jeanty has gone over 4.5 TGT 8 of 10 decided times (80%) — versus 56% across the full season. NO has been a middling matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 12th-most TGT of 32 teams (3.3 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game TGT have been highly variable (σ ≈ 2.3), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 56%.