Las Vegas Raiders

Ashton Jeanty Targets

Stats updated: Jan 4, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Ashton Jeanty has gone over 4.5 TGT in 7 of his last 10 decided games (70%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Boise State
Experience: 3 seasons

Line

PrizePicksTargets · season avg 4.5 TGT · our line

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OutAshton Jeanty isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

It comes off as typical coach speak that is routinely thrown around at this stage of the offseason, but it's at least worth noting nonetheless. "It's important to have a quality second back, but the best player has got to play, and we've got to get them on the field as much as we can," Kubiak said. "I don't know the play-snap percentage, but you look at Christian McCaffrey, his play-snap percentage is high. So, those great backs, they don't want to come off the field." Only nine running backs handled more carries and played more snaps than Jeanty last season, so it'll be tough to truly put significantly more on his plate in 2026, but the hope is for far better efficiency behind an improved offensive line with better coaching and quarterback play. Currently in the mix for RB touches that don't go to Jeantyare rookie fourth-rounder Mike Washington, as well as Dylan Laube, Chris Collier and UDFA addition Roman Hemby.

Verdict

vs 4.5 TGTTargets

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 46% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)56neutral

Projection vs line46neutral

Consistency11argues against it

Projection

4.3 TGT(×0.99 context)

L5 3.8 · L10 5.3 · med 5.0

Consistency

Variable

floor 2.0 · ceil 7.0

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 55 games

40%over

2 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%

Last 1010 games

70%over

7 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 40%–89%

Last 2016 games

50%over

8 over · 8 under

Medium confidence95% CI 28%–72%

Season16 games

50%over

8 over · 8 under

Medium confidence95% CI 28%–72%

Alternate lines — Targets (TGT)

TGT over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate TGT line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	94%	15/16
	69%	11/16
	69%	11/16
4.5Current	50%	8/16
	31%	5/16
	25%	4/16
	19%	3/16

Last 16 games — TGT per game vs. line 4.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 4.5 TGT by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home44%4/9Low

Away57%4/7Low

Days since last game

3+ days53%8/15Low

With a teammate out

How this TGT line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.

Kirk Cousins out

Without (10g)

4.5 TGT

50% over 4.5

With (6g)

4.5 TGT

50% over 4.5

Brock Bowers out

Without (4g)

4.5 TGT

50% over 4.5

With (12g)

4.5 TGT

50% over 4.5

Last matchup — vs KC

Jan 4, 2026

12thof 32 in TGT allowed to running backs

KC allows 2.7 TGT per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 28 player-games

Neutral

The read

Over his last 10 games, Ashton Jeanty has gone over 4.5 TGT 7 of 10 decided times (70%) — versus 50% across the full season. KC has been a middling matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 12th-most TGT of 32 teams (2.7 per game). His game-to-game TGT have been highly variable (σ ≈ 2.4), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.