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Tampa Bay BuccaneersBaker Mayfield
#6 · QB · 6' 1" · 215 lb · 19 games
Too few games this season to read on their own, so 17 of these 19 are carried over from last season. Expect this read to move as the season fills in.
Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Oklahoma
- Experience
- 10 seasons
Line
Passing Yards · season avg 215.3 PASS YDS · PrizePicks lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutBaker Mayfield isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
There had been buzz surrounding Mayfield's matchup against the team that drafted him first overall in 2018, but the veteran signal-caller couldn't deliver a revenge victory. Mayfield looked surprisingly out of sorts most of the afternoon against a Browns defense that had been dominated by the Jaguars in Week 1, and after an extensive weather delay, he went just 1-for-4 for six yards once play resumed at the two-minute warning with the Buccaneers at Cleveland's 28-yard line and needing a touchdown. Mayfield added another turnover on his late first-quarter interception as well, putting him firmly in the spotlight heading into a Week 3 home date against an aggressive Vikings defense next Sunday.
Verdict
vs 215.5 PASS YDSPassing YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 64% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)63supports it
Projection vs line64supports it
Consistency40neutral
Projection
187.6 PASS YDS(×0.89 context)
L5 218.4 · L10 189.9 · med 188.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 161.0 · ceil 274.6
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
30%over
3 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 11%–60%Last 2019 games
47%over
9 over · 10 under
Medium confidence95% CI 27%–68%Season19 games
47%over
9 over · 10 under
Medium confidence95% CI 27%–68%Alternate lines — Passing Yards (PASS YDS)
PASS YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 53% | 10/19 | ||
| 53% | 10/19 | ||
| 53% | 10/19 | ||
| 215.5Current | 47% | 9/19 | |
| 42% | 8/19 | ||
| 42% | 8/19 | ||
| 42% | 8/19 |
Situational splits
Over 215.5 PASS YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home56%5/9Low
Away40%4/10Low
Days since last game
3+ days50%9/18Medium
Next matchup — vs MIN
Sep 27, 2026
7thof 32 in PASS YDS allowed to quarterbacks
MIN allows 262.5 PASS YDS per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 2 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
FavorableThe read
Over his last 10 games, Baker Mayfield has gone over 215.5 PASS YDS 3 of 10 decided times (30%) — versus 47% across the full season. MIN has been a favorable matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 7th-most PASS YDS of 32 teams (262.5 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game PASS YDS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 76.9), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 47%.