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Tampa Bay BuccaneersBaker Mayfield
#6 · QB · 6' 1" · 215 lb · 18 games
Too few games this season to read on their own, so 15 of these 18 are carried over from last season. Expect this read to move as the season fills in.
Stats updated: Nov 1, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Oklahoma
- Experience
- 10 seasons
Line
Passing Yards · season avg 218.1 PASS YDS · PrizePicks lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
PrizePicks payout options — Passing Yards (PASS YDS)
Pick any line — standard, demon (harder, pays more), goblin (easier, pays less), or an alternate with its payout multiplier — and the whole read updates to it. Only the standard line takes an under; every other variant pays the over only. Each rung’s FireFactor is scored against its OWN payout breakeven — 0 means fairly priced for that payout, not a coin flip — so rungs compare directly. The bar uses the best information available: an exact posted multiplier, else the market’s de-vigged sportsbook odds at that exact line, else a published-payout approximation.
How PrizePicks payouts work with demons & goblins
Typical entry payouts (verify in the app — they change and can vary by state): Power Play 2-pick 3×, 3-pick 5×, 4-pick 10×. Flex Play 3-pick 2.25× (1.25× one miss), 4-pick 5× (1.5× one miss), 5-pick 10× (2× / 0.4× on misses), 6-pick 25× (2× / 0.4× on misses).
Demons: Adding a demon raises the whole entry’s payout multiple (a harder line buys a bigger multiplier). Demons can only be taken as More.
Goblins: Adding a goblin lowers the whole entry’s payout multiple (an easier line costs payout). Goblins can only be taken as More and aren’t combinable with everything — the app shows the exact adjusted payout.
OutOutBaker Mayfield isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
The afternoon-long rainy conditions in Tampa Bay and the Falcons' defense's complete inability to slow down the Buccaneers' ground attack led to Mayfield barely putting in any work as a passer. In the process, the Bucs became the first team since 1974 to win a game without a single completion, and the bizarre circumstances left Mayfield's fantasy managers with a dead spot in their lineups. Mayfield will naturally be a lot busier when he travels to the Windy City to face the Bears' aggressive defense in a Week 9 road showdown next Sunday night.
Verdict
vs 213.5 PASS YDSPassing YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 56% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)62supports it
Projection vs line56neutral
Consistency40neutral
Projection
218.7 PASS YDS(×1.02 context)
L5 232.8 · L10 194.3 · med 198.5
Consistency
Variable
floor 160.4 · ceil 275.4
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 1010 games
40%over
4 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 17%–69%Last 2018 games
56%over
10 over · 8 under
Medium confidence95% CI 34%–75%Season18 games
56%over
10 over · 8 under
Medium confidence95% CI 34%–75%Situational splits
Over 213.5 PASS YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home60%6/10Low
Away50%4/8Low
Days since last game
3+ days53%9/17Medium
With a teammate out
How this PASS YDS line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Bucky Irving out+15.7 PASS YDS when he sits
Without (15g)
220.7 PASS YDS
53% over 213.5
With (3g)
205.0 PASS YDS
67% over 213.5
Kenny Gainwell out+15.7 PASS YDS when he sits
Without (15g)
220.7 PASS YDS
53% over 213.5
With (3g)
205.0 PASS YDS
67% over 213.5
Next matchup — @ CHI
Nov 9, 2026
14thof 32 in PASS YDS allowed to quarterbacks
CHI allows 234.6 PASS YDS per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 8 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
NeutralThe read
Over his last 10 games, Baker Mayfield has gone over 213.5 PASS YDS 4 of 10 decided times (40%) — versus 56% across the full season. CHI has been a middling matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 14th-most PASS YDS of 32 teams (234.6 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game PASS YDS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 78.2), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
3 books @ 211.5 PASS YDS- No-vig fair (over)
- 50.0%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 50.0%
Best Over
DraftKings-111
-5.0% EV
Best Under
DraftKings-112
-5.4% EV
Model vs market (over)+5.7%
Our model puts the over at 55.7% vs the market's no-vig 50.0%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Passing Yards (PASS YDS)
Each book’s line and your season over rate at that number, vs the market consensus (211.5 PASS YDS). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
over rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 56%.