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Tampa Bay BuccaneersBaker Mayfield Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)
Stats updated: Nov 1, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Baker Mayfield has gone over 15 FS in 2 of his last 10 decided games (20%), measured against our typical-game line.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Oklahoma
- Experience
- 10 seasons
Line
Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) · season avg 15.2 FS · PrizePicks lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
PrizePicks payout options — Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) (FS)
Pick any line — standard, demon (harder, pays more), goblin (easier, pays less), or an alternate with its payout multiplier — and the whole read updates to it. Only the standard line takes an under; every other variant pays the over only. Each rung’s FireFactor is scored against its OWN payout breakeven — 0 means fairly priced for that payout, not a coin flip — so rungs compare directly. The bar uses the best information available: an exact posted multiplier, else the market’s de-vigged sportsbook odds at that exact line, else a published-payout approximation.
How PrizePicks payouts work with demons & goblins
Typical entry payouts (verify in the app — they change and can vary by state): Power Play 2-pick 3×, 3-pick 5×, 4-pick 10×. Flex Play 3-pick 2.25× (1.25× one miss), 4-pick 5× (1.5× one miss), 5-pick 10× (2× / 0.4× on misses), 6-pick 25× (2× / 0.4× on misses).
Demons: Adding a demon raises the whole entry’s payout multiple (a harder line buys a bigger multiplier). Demons can only be taken as More.
Goblins: Adding a goblin lowers the whole entry’s payout multiple (an easier line costs payout). Goblins can only be taken as More and aren’t combinable with everything — the app shows the exact adjusted payout.
OutOutBaker Mayfield isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
The afternoon-long rainy conditions in Tampa Bay and the Falcons' defense's complete inability to slow down the Buccaneers' ground attack led to Mayfield barely putting in any work as a passer. In the process, the Bucs became the first team since 1974 to win a game without a single completion, and the bizarre circumstances left Mayfield's fantasy managers with a dead spot in their lineups. Mayfield will naturally be a lot busier when he travels to the Windy City to face the Bears' aggressive defense in a Week 9 road showdown next Sunday night.
Verdict
vs 15 FSFantasy Score (PrizePicks)No readFireFactor 0/100· model 54% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)75supports it
Projection vs line54neutral
Consistency42neutral
Projection
14.4 FS(×1.02 context)
L5 14.2 · L10 13.5 · med 13.4
Consistency
Variable
floor 12.1 · ceil 19.6
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
20%over
1 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%Last 1010 games
20%over
2 over · 8 under
Low confidence95% CI 6%–51%Last 2018 games
44%over
8 over · 10 under
Medium confidence95% CI 25%–66%Season18 games
44%over
8 over · 10 under
Medium confidence95% CI 25%–66%Situational splits
Over 15 FS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home50%5/10Low
Away38%3/8Low
Days since last game
3+ days41%7/17Medium
With a teammate out
How this FS line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Bucky Irving out+3.4 FS when he sits
Without (15g)
15.8 FS
53% over 15
With (3g)
12.4 FS
0% over 15
Kenny Gainwell out+3.4 FS when he sits
Without (15g)
15.8 FS
53% over 15
With (3g)
12.4 FS
0% over 15
Next matchup — @ CHI
Nov 9, 2026
10thof 32 in FS allowed to quarterbacks
CHI allows 18.6 FS per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 8 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
FavorableThe read
Over his last 10 games, Baker Mayfield has gone over 15 FS 2 of 10 decided times (20%) — versus 44% across the full season. CHI has been a favorable matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 10th-most FS of 32 teams (18.6 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game FS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 5.2), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 44%.
More Baker Mayfield research
Baker Mayfield — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
Mayfield Passing TDs→
Passing TDs hit rates and trends.
Mayfield Completions→
Completions hit rates and trends.
Mayfield Rushing Yards→
Rushing Yards hit rates and trends.
Defense vs Position→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
NFL Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.