Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Baker Mayfield Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)

Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Baker Mayfield has gone over 16 FS in 3 of his last 10 decided games (30%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Oklahoma
Experience: 10 seasons

Line

PrizePicksFantasy Score (PrizePicks) · season avg 16.0 FS · PrizePicks line

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OutBaker Mayfield isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

There had been buzz surrounding Mayfield's matchup against the team that drafted him first overall in 2018, but the veteran signal-caller couldn't deliver a revenge victory. Mayfield looked surprisingly out of sorts most of the afternoon against a Browns defense that had been dominated by the Jaguars in Week 1, and after an extensive weather delay, he went just 1-for-4 for six yards once play resumed at the two-minute warning with the Buccaneers at Cleveland's 28-yard line and needing a touchdown. Mayfield added another turnover on his late first-quarter interception as well, putting him firmly in the spotlight heading into a Week 3 home date against an aggressive Vikings defense next Sunday.

Verdict

vs 16 FSFantasy Score (PrizePicks)

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 36% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)49neutral

Projection vs line36argues against it

Consistency44neutral

Projection

13.1 FS(×0.89 context)

L5 14.4 · L10 14.0 · med 14.0

Consistency

Variable

floor 12.1 · ceil 19.9

Matchup

small sample

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 55 games

20%over

1 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%

Last 1010 games

30%over

3 over · 7 under

Low confidence95% CI 11%–60%

Last 2019 games

53%over

10 over · 9 under

Medium confidence95% CI 32%–73%

Season19 games

53%over

10 over · 9 under

Medium confidence95% CI 32%–73%

Last 19 games — FS per game vs. line 16.0. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 16 FS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home56%5/9Low

Away50%5/10Low

Days since last game

3+ days50%9/18Medium

Next matchup — vs MIN

Sep 27, 2026

22ndof 32 in FS allowed to quarterbacks

MIN allows 14.6 FS per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 2 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution

Tough

The read

Over his last 10 games, Baker Mayfield has gone over 16 FS 3 of 10 decided times (30%) — versus 53% across the full season. MIN has been a tough matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 22nd-most FS of 32 teams (14.6 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game FS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 5.4), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 53%.