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Atlanta FalconsBijan Robinson
#7 · RB · 5' 11" · 215 lb · 16 games
Stats updated: Jan 4, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Texas
- Experience
- 5 seasons
Line
Rushing Yards · season avg 90.8 RUSH YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutBijan Robinson isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Robinson's three-year pact includes $51 million guaranteed and makes him the highest-paid running back in NFL history. With a new deal in place, Robinson, who hadn't been participating in training camp practices, is slated to rejoin his teammates on the field. With Robinson's contract situation settled, attention now turns to fellow elite fantasy back Jahmyr Gibbs, who has been a training camp hold-in as he seeks an extension with the Lions.
Verdict
vs 80.5 RUSH YDSRushing YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 59% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)54neutral
Projection vs line59neutral
Consistency12argues against it
Projection
98.9 RUSH YDS(×1.06 context)
L5 96.6 · L10 92.9 · med 85.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 46.0 · ceil 142.0
Matchup
C
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 1010 games
60%over
6 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 31%–83%Last 2016 games
50%over
8 over · 8 under
Medium confidence95% CI 28%–72%Season16 games
50%over
8 over · 8 under
Medium confidence95% CI 28%–72%Alternate lines — Rushing Yards (RUSH YDS)
RUSH YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50% | 8/16 | ||
| 50% | 8/16 | ||
| 50% | 8/16 | ||
| 80.5Current | 50% | 8/16 | |
| 50% | 8/16 | ||
| 50% | 8/16 | ||
| 50% | 8/16 |
Situational splits
Over 80.5 RUSH YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home57%4/7Low
Away44%4/9Low
Days since last game
3+ days53%8/15Low
With a teammate out
How this RUSH YDS line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Tua Tagovailoa out+4.1 RUSH YDS when he sits
Without (11g)
92.1 RUSH YDS
36% over 80.5
With (5g)
88.0 RUSH YDS
80% over 80.5
Drake London out+9.3 RUSH YDS when he sits
Without (4g)
97.8 RUSH YDS
75% over 80.5
With (12g)
88.5 RUSH YDS
42% over 80.5
Last matchup — vs NO
Jan 4, 2026
16thof 32 in RUSH YDS allowed to running backs
NO allows 48.6 RUSH YDS per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 35 player-games
NeutralThe read
Over his last 10 games, Bijan Robinson has gone over 80.5 RUSH YDS 6 of 10 decided times (60%) — versus 50% across the full season. NO has been a middling matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 16th-most RUSH YDS of 32 teams (48.6 per game). His game-to-game RUSH YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 47.7), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.