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Atlanta FalconsBijan Robinson Receiving Yards
Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Bijan Robinson has gone over 44.5 REC YDS in 4 of his last 10 decided games (40%), measured against our typical-game line.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Texas
- Experience
- 5 seasons
Line
Receiving Yards · season avg 49.8 REC YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutBijan Robinson isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Considering the Falcons' air attack posed next to no threat to the Panthers defense while being helmed by Cooper Rush and Jack Strand, Robinson managed to put together a serviceable, albeit scoreless, day. The ultra-talented back didn't have a robust enough opportunity on the ground thanks to a game script that increasingly turned against the run, but Robinson's 4.5 yards per carry was more than respectable considering the circumstances. Either Michael Penix (knee) or Tua Tagovailoa (oblique) appear to have a chance to return for Thursday's Week 3 road matchup against the Packers, a development that would theoretically offer Robinson the opportunity to see some less crowded defensive fronts.
Verdict
vs 44.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 48% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)54neutral
Projection vs line48neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
46.1 REC YDS(×1.04 context)
L5 47.0 · L10 45.2 · med 38.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 16.0 · ceil 86.8
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
40%over
4 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 17%–69%Last 2018 games
50%over
9 over · 9 under
Medium confidence95% CI 29%–71%Season18 games
50%over
9 over · 9 under
Medium confidence95% CI 29%–71%Alternate lines — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
REC YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50% | 9/18 | ||
| 50% | 9/18 | ||
| 50% | 9/18 | ||
| 44.5Current | 50% | 9/18 | |
| 50% | 9/18 | ||
| 50% | 9/18 | ||
| 50% | 9/18 |
Situational splits
Over 44.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home38%3/8Low
Away60%6/10Low
Days since last game
3+ days47%8/17Medium
Next matchup — @ GB
Sep 25, 2026
11thof 32 in REC YDS allowed to running backs
GB allows 17.8 REC YDS per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 4 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
NeutralThe read
Over his last 10 games, Bijan Robinson has gone over 44.5 REC YDS 4 of 10 decided times (40%) — versus 50% across the full season. GB has been a middling matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 11th-most REC YDS of 32 teams (17.8 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game REC YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 32.3), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
6 books @ 40.5 REC YDS- No-vig fair (over)
- 50.0%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 50.0%
Best Over
DraftKings-111
-5.0% EV
Best Under
DraftKings-113
-5.8% EV
Model vs market (over)+2.1%
Our model puts the over at 52.1% vs the market's no-vig 50.0%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
Each book’s line and your season under rate at that number, vs the market consensus (40.5 REC YDS). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
under rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.
More Bijan Robinson research
Bijan Robinson — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
Robinson Carries→
Carries hit rates and trends.
Robinson Rushing TDs→
Rushing TDs hit rates and trends.
Robinson Receptions→
Receptions hit rates and trends.
Robinson Targets→
Targets hit rates and trends.
Defense vs Position→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
NFL Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.