Loading…
Atlanta FalconsBijan Robinson Receiving Yards
Stats updated: Nov 1, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Bijan Robinson has gone over 18.5 REC YDS in 4 of his last 7 decided games (57%), measured against our typical-game line.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Texas
- Experience
- 5 seasons
Line
Receiving Yards · season avg 30.1 REC YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutBijan Robinson isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
It was a bizarre afternoon overall in very rainy conditions in Tampa Bay, and Robinson managed to salvage his day with a solid rushing yardage total. Robinson's tally on the ground was actually his best since Week 5, although his streak of games without a rushing touchdown extended to four. Robinson is still averaging 5.2 yards per carry on the season and now is up to 983 yards from scrimmage and five total touchdowns heading into next Sunday's Week 9 matchup against the Bengals in Madrid.
Verdict
vs 18.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 63% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)71supports it
Projection vs line63supports it
Consistency0argues against it
Matchup75supports it
Projection
29.3 REC YDS(×1.09 context)
L5 22.4 · L10 30.1 · med 19.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 3.4 · ceil 53.6
Matchup
B
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Book links are referral links — we may earn a commission. It never affects the numbers on this page.
Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 107 games
57%over
4 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%Last 207 games
57%over
4 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%Season7 games
57%over
4 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%Alternate lines — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
REC YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 57% | 4/7 | ||
| 57% | 4/7 | ||
| 57% | 4/7 | ||
| 18.5Current | 57% | 4/7 | |
| 43% | 3/7 | ||
| 43% | 3/7 | ||
| 43% | 3/7 |
Situational splits
Over 18.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home67%2/3Low
Away50%2/4Low
Days since last game
3+ days50%3/6Low
Next matchup — vs CIN
Nov 8, 2026
13thof 32 in REC YDS allowed to running backs
CIN allows 16.1 REC YDS per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 13 player-games
NeutralThe read
Over his last 7 games, Bijan Robinson has gone over 18.5 REC YDS 4 of 7 decided times (57%) — versus 57% across the full season. CIN has been a middling matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 13th-most REC YDS of 32 teams (16.1 per game). His game-to-game REC YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 30.9), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
3 books @ 25.5 REC YDS- No-vig fair (over)
- 50.0%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 50.0%
Best Over
FanDuel-114
-6.1% EV
Best Under
FanDuel-114
-6.1% EV
Model vs market (over)+12.5%
Our model puts the over at 62.5% vs the market's no-vig 50.0%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
Each book’s line and your season over rate at that number, vs the market consensus (25.5 REC YDS). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
over rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 57%.
More Bijan Robinson research
Bijan Robinson — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
Robinson Carries→
Carries hit rates and trends.
Robinson Rushing TDs→
Rushing TDs hit rates and trends.
Robinson Receptions→
Receptions hit rates and trends.
Robinson Targets→
Targets hit rates and trends.
Defense vs Position→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
NFL Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.