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Denver BroncosBo Nix
#10 · QB · 6' 2" · 217 lb · 8 games
Stats updated: Nov 1, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Oregon
- Experience
- 4 seasons
Line
Passing Yards · season avg 186.6 PASS YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutBo Nix isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
The Broncos were staring at a 24-13 deficit heading into the fourth quarter, but late comebacks are nothing new for Nix. The QB hit Nate Adkins for a two-yard score with about nine minutes left before connecting with Jonah Coleman on a 51-yard catch-and-run to set up the game-winning TD plunge by the rookie RB just after the two-minute warning. It's the 15th time that Nix has led Denver on a game-winning drive in the fourth quarter or overtime, the most by any quarterback in the first three seasons of his career since the AFL-NFL merger in 1970. While he's thrown multiple TDs just twice in the first eight games of the season, Nix has gone five straight contests without tossing an INT. He'll take a 9:3 TD:INT into a Week 9 road tilt against the Panthers.
Verdict
vs 199.5 PASS YDSPassing YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 48% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)51neutral
Projection vs line48neutral
Consistency48neutral
Projection
193.5 PASS YDS(×1.02 context)
L5 177.6 · L10 186.6 · med 200.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 126.2 · ceil 222.0
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 108 games
50%over
4 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 22%–78%Last 208 games
50%over
4 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 22%–78%Season8 games
50%over
4 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 22%–78%Alternate lines — Passing Yards (PASS YDS)
PASS YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50% | 4/8 | ||
| 50% | 4/8 | ||
| 50% | 4/8 | ||
| 199.5Current | 50% | 4/8 | |
| 50% | 4/8 | ||
| 50% | 4/8 | ||
| 50% | 4/8 |
Situational splits
Over 199.5 PASS YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home50%2/4Low
Away50%2/4Low
Days since last game
3+ days57%4/7Low
Next matchup — @ CAR
Nov 8, 2026
30thof 32 in PASS YDS allowed to quarterbacks
CAR allows 192.1 PASS YDS per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 8 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
ToughThe read
Over his last 8 games, Bo Nix has gone over 199.5 PASS YDS 4 of 8 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. CAR has been a tough matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 30th-most PASS YDS of 32 teams (192.1 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game PASS YDS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 58.1), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
2 books @ 210.5 PASS YDS- No-vig fair (over)
- 50.0%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 50.0%
Best Over
FanDuel-114
-6.1% EV
Best Under
FanDuel-114
-6.1% EV
Model vs market (over)-1.6%
Our model puts the over at 48.4% vs the market's no-vig 50.0%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Passing Yards (PASS YDS)
Each book’s line and your season over rate at that number, vs the market consensus (211 PASS YDS). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
over rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.