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Denver BroncosBo Nix Passing TDs
Stats updated: Nov 1, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Bo Nix has gone over 1.5 PASS TD in 2 of his last 8 decided games (25%), measured against our typical-game line.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Oregon
- Experience
- 4 seasons
Line
Passing TDs · season avg 1.1 PASS TD · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutBo Nix isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
The Broncos were staring at a 24-13 deficit heading into the fourth quarter, but late comebacks are nothing new for Nix. The QB hit Nate Adkins for a two-yard score with about nine minutes left before connecting with Jonah Coleman on a 51-yard catch-and-run to set up the game-winning TD plunge by the rookie RB just after the two-minute warning. It's the 15th time that Nix has led Denver on a game-winning drive in the fourth quarter or overtime, the most by any quarterback in the first three seasons of his career since the AFL-NFL merger in 1970. While he's thrown multiple TDs just twice in the first eight games of the season, Nix has gone five straight contests without tossing an INT. He'll take a 9:3 TD:INT into a Week 9 road tilt against the Panthers.
Verdict
vs 1.5 PASS TDPassing TDsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 69% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it
Projection vs line69supports it
Consistency11argues against it
Projection
1.2 PASS TD(×1.02 context)
L5 1.0 · L10 1.1 · med 1.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 1.0 · ceil 1.6
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
20%over
1 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%Last 108 games
25%over
2 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 7%–59%Last 208 games
25%over
2 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 7%–59%Season8 games
25%over
2 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 7%–59%Alternate lines — Passing TDs (PASS TD)
PASS TD over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 88% | 7/8 | ||
| 1.5Current | 25% | 2/8 | |
| 0% | 0/8 | ||
| 0% | 0/8 | ||
| 0% | 0/8 |
Situational splits
Over 1.5 PASS TD by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home50%2/4Low
Away0%0/4Low
Days since last game
3+ days29%2/7Low
Next matchup — @ CAR
Nov 8, 2026
22ndof 32 in PASS TD allowed to quarterbacks
CAR allows 1.3 PASS TD per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 8 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
ToughThe read
Over his last 8 games, Bo Nix has gone over 1.5 PASS TD 2 of 8 decided times (25%) — versus 25% across the full season. CAR has been a tough matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 22nd-most PASS TD of 32 teams (1.3 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game PASS TD have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.6), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
6 books @ 1.5 PASS TD- No-vig fair (over)
- 45.9%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 54.1%
Best Over
BetRivers+112
-2.7% EV
Best Under
Hard Rock Bet-130
-4.3% EV
Model vs market (over)-14.8%
Our model puts the over at 31.1% vs the market's no-vig 45.9%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Passing TDs (PASS TD)
Each book’s line and your season under rate at that number, vs the market consensus (1.5 PASS TD). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
under rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 25%.
More Bo Nix research
Bo Nix — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
Nix Completions→
Completions hit rates and trends.
Nix Rushing Yards→
Rushing Yards hit rates and trends.
Nix Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)→
Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) hit rates and trends.
Defense vs Position→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
NFL Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.