Denver Broncos

Bo Nix Passing TDs

Stats updated: Jan 17, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Bo Nix has gone over 1.5 PASS TD in 3 of his last 10 decided games (30%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Oregon
Experience: 4 seasons

Line

PrizePicksPassing TDs · season avg 1.6 PASS TD · our line

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OutBo Nix isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Nix had been limited during the team's offseason program while working his way back from ankle surgery and a follow-up procedure, but as expected, he was ready for training camp's first practice and looked sharp during red-zone work in the process. As the coming campaign approaches, Nix's fantasy prospects should be bolstered by the fact that Denver added Jaylen Waddle, via a trade with the Dolphins this offseason, to a WR corps that returns Courtland Sutton, giving the team a notable 1-2 punch at the position.

Verdict

vs 1.5 PASS TDPassing TDs

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 56% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)85supports it

Projection vs line56neutral

Consistency0argues against it

Projection

1.6 PASS TD(×1.03 context)

L5 1.8 · L10 1.3 · med 1.0

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 1.0 · ceil 2.6

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 55 games

40%over

2 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%

Last 1010 games

30%over

3 over · 7 under

Low confidence95% CI 11%–60%

Last 2018 games

39%over

7 over · 11 under

Medium confidence95% CI 20%–61%

Season18 games

39%over

7 over · 11 under

Medium confidence95% CI 20%–61%

Alternate lines — Passing TDs (PASS TD)

PASS TD over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate PASS TD line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	83%	15/18
1.5Current	39%	7/18
	22%	4/18
	11%	2/18
	0%	0/18

Last 18 games — PASS TD per game vs. line 1.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 1.5 PASS TD by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home50%5/10Low

Away25%2/8Low

Days since last game

3+ days41%7/17Medium

With a teammate out

How this PASS TD line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.

J.K. Dobbins out-0.6 PASS TD when he sits

Without (8g)

1.3 PASS TD

25% over 1.5

With (10g)

1.8 PASS TD

50% over 1.5

Last matchup — vs BUF

Jan 17, 2026

22ndof 32 in PASS TD allowed to quarterbacks

BUF allows 1.3 PASS TD per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 20 player-games

Tough

The read

Over his last 10 games, Bo Nix has gone over 1.5 PASS TD 3 of 10 decided times (30%) — versus 39% across the full season. BUF has been a tough matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 22nd-most PASS TD of 32 teams (1.3 per game). His game-to-game PASS TD have been highly variable (σ ≈ 1.2), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Market edgeauto

1 book @ 1.5 PASS TD

No-vig fair (over): 36.4%
No-vig fair (under): 63.6%

Best Over

Underdog+162

-4.6% EV

Best Under

Underdog-200

-4.6% EV

Model vs market (over)+7.3%

Our model puts the over at 43.7% vs the market's no-vig 36.4%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 39%.