New York Jets

Braelon Allen Receptions

Stats updated: Nov 8, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Braelon Allen has gone over 1.5 REC in 5 of his last 7 decided games (71%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Wisconsin
Experience: 4 seasons

Line

PrizePicksReceptions · season avg 2.1 REC · our line

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OutBraelon Allen isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Allen was limited to 10 touches in Breece Hall's (quadriceps) return from a five-game absence, while Hall turned 18 touches into 87 yards. The 22-year-old Allen excelled during Hall's absence, topping 100 scrimmage yards in each of the previous four games, but Allen will be tough to trust moving forward in fantasy with Hall first in line for touches, especially in the negative game scripts that will likely persist for the 2-7 Jets. Allen's lost fumble was his first of the season, and he has put the ball on the ground only one other time, so at least ball security hasn't been an issue for him heading into a Week 10 home game against the Bills.

Verdict

vs 1.5 RECReceptions

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 74% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it

Projection vs line74supports it

Consistency0argues against it

Matchup100supports it

Projection

2.6 REC(×1.11 context)

L5 2.6 · L10 2.1 · med 2.0

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 1.2 · ceil 2.0

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 55 games

80%over

4 over · 1 under

Low confidence95% CI 38%–96%

Last 107 games

71%over

5 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 36%–92%

Last 207 games

71%over

5 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 36%–92%

Season7 games

71%over

5 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 36%–92%

Alternate lines — Receptions (REC)

REC over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate REC line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	86%	6/7
1.5Current	71%	5/7
	14%	1/7
	14%	1/7
	14%	1/7

Last 7 games — REC per game vs. line 1.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 1.5 REC by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home67%2/3Low

Away75%3/4Low

Days since last game

3+ days83%5/6Low

Next matchup — vs BUF

Nov 15, 2026

3rdof 32 in REC allowed to running backs

BUF allows 2.8 REC per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 13 player-games

Favorable

The read

Over his last 7 games, Braelon Allen has gone over 1.5 REC 5 of 7 decided times (71%) — versus 71% across the full season. BUF has been a favorable matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 3rd-most REC of 32 teams (2.8 per game). His game-to-game REC have been highly variable (σ ≈ 1.7), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Market edgeauto

1 book @ 1.5 REC

No-vig fair (over): 39.9%
No-vig fair (under): 60.1%

Best Over

Sleeper+121

-11.7% EV

Best Under

Sleeper-213

-11.7% EV

Model vs market (over)+33.6%

Our model puts the over at 73.6% vs the market's no-vig 39.9%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 71%.