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New York GiantsBraxton Berrios
#17 · WR · 5' 9" · 190 lb · 2 games
Stats updated: Oct 26, 2025 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Miami
- Experience
- 10 seasons
Line
Receiving Yards · season avg 18.5 REC YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutBraxton Berrios isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Across four regular-season games with the Texans last year, Berrios caught six passes for 37 yards on eight targets. He also recorded 81 kickoff-return yards and 25 punt-return yards. The former Jet and Dolphin may need to find a special-teams role to have a chance to make the G-Men.
Verdict
vs 18.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 52% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)50neutral
Projection vs line52neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
19.4 REC YDS
L5 18.5 · L10 18.5 · med 18.5
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 6.8 · ceil 30.2
Matchup
B
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 52 games
50%over
1 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 9%–91%Last 102 games
50%over
1 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 9%–91%Last 202 games
50%over
1 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 9%–91%Season2 games
50%over
1 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 9%–91%Alternate lines — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
REC YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50% | 1/2 | ||
| 50% | 1/2 | ||
| 50% | 1/2 | ||
| 18.5Current | 50% | 1/2 | |
| 50% | 1/2 | ||
| 50% | 1/2 | ||
| 50% | 1/2 |
Situational splits
Over 18.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home100%1/1Low
Away0%0/1Low
Days since last game
3+ days100%1/1Low
Last matchup — vs SF
Oct 26, 2025
9thof 32 in REC YDS allowed to wide receivers
SF allows 47.3 REC YDS per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 59 player-games
FavorableThe read
Over his last 2 games, Braxton Berrios has gone over 18.5 REC YDS 1 of 2 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. SF has been a favorable matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 9th-most REC YDS of 32 teams (47.3 per game). His game-to-game REC YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 19.5), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.