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Jacksonville JaguarsBrian Thomas Jr.
#7 · WR · 6' 2" · 209 lb · 6 games
Stats updated: Nov 1, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- LSU
- Experience
- 4 seasons
Line
Receiving Yards · season avg 18.2 REC YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutBrian Thomas Jr. isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Thomas played just 19 of 56 offensive snaps and ran only 11 routes on Trevor Lawrence's 26 dropbacks. It's become clear that Thomas is no longer a big part of the offense and needs an injury ahead of him or a trade out of Jacksonville to become relevant in season-long fantasy. He has just one catch for a 12-yard touchdown over his last four games.
Verdict
vs 14.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 42% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)52neutral
Projection vs line42neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Matchup0argues against it
Projection
18.0 REC YDS(×1.21 context)
L5 13.8 · L10 18.2 · med 14.5
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 0.0 · ceil 40.0
Matchup
A
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 106 games
50%over
3 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 19%–81%Last 206 games
50%over
3 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 19%–81%Season6 games
50%over
3 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 19%–81%Alternate lines — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
REC YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 67% | 4/6 | ||
| 50% | 3/6 | ||
| 50% | 3/6 | ||
| 14.5Current | 50% | 3/6 | |
| 50% | 3/6 | ||
| 50% | 3/6 | ||
| 33% | 2/6 |
Situational splits
Over 14.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home25%1/4Low
Away100%2/2Low
Days since last game
3+ days40%2/5Low
Next matchup — @ TEN
Nov 15, 2026
2ndof 32 in REC YDS allowed to wide receivers
TEN allows 58.0 REC YDS per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 26 player-games
FavorableThe read
Over his last 6 games, Brian Thomas Jr. has gone over 14.5 REC YDS 3 of 6 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. TEN has been a favorable matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 2nd-most REC YDS of 32 teams (58.0 per game). His game-to-game REC YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 16.6), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.