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Jacksonville JaguarsBrian Thomas Jr. Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)
Stats updated: Nov 1, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Brian Thomas Jr. has gone over 6.5 FS in 4 of his last 6 decided games (67%), measured against our typical-game line.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- LSU
- Experience
- 4 seasons
Line
Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) · season avg 5.3 FS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutBrian Thomas Jr. isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Since delivering an 87-1,282-10 receiving line over 17 games as a rookie in 2024, Thomas' production has cratered in the ensuing two seasons. He's been firmly behind Parker Washington and Jakobi Meyers (hamstring/ankle) in terms of snap share through the Jaguars' first seven games and has drawn more than three targets in just one of those contests. Though the vertical threat Thomas presents might make him an appealing target for teams seeking a big-play receiver, it's unclear if the Jaguars have much motivation to move him. Despite his declining role within the Jacksonville offense, Thomas remains under contract through next season at relatively modest cap hits of $4.01 million in 2026 and $4.66 million in 2027.
Verdict
vs 6.5 FSFantasy Score (PrizePicks)No readFireFactor 0/100· model 50% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)98supports it
Projection vs line50neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Matchup100supports it
Projection
5.6 FS(×1.10 context)
L5 5.0 · L10 5.3 · med 7.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 0.0 · ceil 8.2
Matchup
A
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 106 games
67%over
4 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 30%–90%Last 206 games
67%over
4 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 30%–90%Season6 games
67%over
4 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 30%–90%Alternate lines — Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) (FS)
FS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 67% | 4/6 | ||
| 67% | 4/6 | ||
| 67% | 4/6 | ||
| 6.5Current | 67% | 4/6 | |
| 33% | 2/6 | ||
| 17% | 1/6 | ||
| 17% | 1/6 |
Situational splits
Over 6.5 FS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home50%2/4Low
Away100%2/2Low
Days since last game
3+ days60%3/5Low
Next matchup — @ BAL
Nov 6, 2026
6thof 32 in FS allowed to wide receivers
BAL allows 11.0 FS per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 24 player-games
FavorableThe read
Over his last 6 games, Brian Thomas Jr. has gone over 6.5 FS 4 of 6 decided times (67%) — versus 67% across the full season. BAL has been a favorable matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 6th-most FS of 32 teams (11.0 per game). His game-to-game FS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 3.9), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 67%.
More Brian Thomas Jr. research
Brian Thomas Jr. — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
Thomas Jr. Receptions→
Receptions hit rates and trends.
Thomas Jr. Targets→
Targets hit rates and trends.
Thomas Jr. Receiving TDs→
Receiving TDs hit rates and trends.
Defense vs Position→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
NFL Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.