Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Bucky Irving Carries

Stats updated: Jan 3, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Bucky Irving has gone over 16.5 CAR in 5 of his last 10 decided games (50%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Oregon
Experience: 4 seasons

Line

PrizePicksCarries · season avg 17.3 CAR · our line

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OutBucky Irving isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Irving won't require a ramp-up period to begin camp, per Bowles, which is highly encouraging after offseason shoulder surgery limited the 2024 fourth-round pick during spring activities. After injuries forced Irving to miss Weeks 5-12 last season and hampered him after his return, the third-year pro is now looking to reestablish himself as the clear top option in a Tampa Bay backfield that also includes Kenneth Gainwell and Sean Tucker.

Verdict

vs 16.5 CARCarries

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 56% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)51neutral

Projection vs line56neutral

Consistency54neutral

Projection

16.5 CAR(×0.93 context)

L5 17.0 · L10 17.3 · med 16.5

Consistency

Steady

floor 14.8 · ceil 20.2

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 55 games

40%over

2 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%

Last 1010 games

50%over

5 over · 5 under

Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%

Last 2010 games

50%over

5 over · 5 under

Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%

Season10 games

50%over

5 over · 5 under

Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%

Alternate lines — Carries (CAR)

CAR over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate CAR line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	90%	9/10
	80%	8/10
	60%	6/10
16.5Current	50%	5/10
	30%	3/10
	30%	3/10
	20%	2/10

Last 10 games — CAR per game vs. line 16.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 16.5 CAR by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home50%3/6Low

Away50%2/4Low

Days since last game

3+ days56%5/9Low

With a teammate out

How this CAR line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.

Kenny Gainwell out+3.4 CAR when he sits

Without (3g)

19.7 CAR

67% over 16.5

With (7g)

16.3 CAR

43% over 16.5

Last matchup — vs CAR

Jan 3, 2026

23rdof 32 in CAR allowed to running backs

CAR allows 10.4 CAR per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 39 player-games

Tough

The read

Over his last 10 games, Bucky Irving has gone over 16.5 CAR 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. CAR has been a tough matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 23rd-most CAR of 32 teams (10.4 per game). His game-to-game CAR have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 4.8), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.