Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Bucky Irving Rushing TDs

Stats updated: Jan 3, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Bucky Irving has gone over 0.5 RUSH TD in 1 of his last 10 decided games (10%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Oregon
Experience: 4 seasons

Line

PrizePicksRushing TDs · season avg 0.1 RUSH TD · our line

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OutBucky Irving isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Irving won't require a ramp-up period to begin camp, per Bowles, which is highly encouraging after offseason shoulder surgery limited the 2024 fourth-round pick during spring activities. After injuries forced Irving to miss Weeks 5-12 last season and hampered him after his return, the third-year pro is now looking to reestablish himself as the clear top option in a Tampa Bay backfield that also includes Kenneth Gainwell and Sean Tucker.

Verdict

vs 0.5 RUSH TDRushing TDs

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 93% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it

Projection vs line93supports it

Consistency0argues against it

Projection

0.1 RUSH TD(×0.93 context)

L5 0.0 · L10 0.1 · med 0.0

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 0.0 · ceil 0.0

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 55 games

0%over

0 over · 5 under

Medium confidence95% CI 0%–43%

Last 1010 games

10%over

1 over · 9 under

Medium confidence95% CI 2%–40%

Last 2010 games

10%over

1 over · 9 under

Medium confidence95% CI 2%–40%

Season10 games

10%over

1 over · 9 under

Medium confidence95% CI 2%–40%

Alternate lines — Rushing TDs (RUSH TD)

RUSH TD over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate RUSH TD line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
0.5Current	10%	1/10
	0%	0/10
	0%	0/10
	0%	0/10

Last 10 games — RUSH TD per game vs. line 0.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 0.5 RUSH TD by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home17%1/6Low

Away0%0/4Low

Days since last game

3+ days11%1/9Medium

With a teammate out

How this RUSH TD line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.

Kenny Gainwell out-0.1 RUSH TD when he sits

Without (3g)

0.0 RUSH TD

0% over 0.5

With (7g)

0.1 RUSH TD

14% over 0.5

Last matchup — vs CAR

Jan 3, 2026

8thof 32 in RUSH TD allowed to running backs

CAR allows 0.4 RUSH TD per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 39 player-games

Favorable

The read

Over his last 10 games, Bucky Irving has gone over 0.5 RUSH TD 1 of 10 decided times (10%) — versus 10% across the full season. CAR has been a favorable matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 8th-most RUSH TD of 32 teams (0.4 per game). His game-to-game RUSH TD have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.3), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 10%.