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Buffalo BillsDalton Kincaid
#86 · TE · 6' 3" · 246 lb · 5 games
Stats updated: Nov 1, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Utah
- Experience
- 5 seasons
Line
Receiving Yards · season avg 77.4 REC YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutDalton Kincaid isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Sal Capaccio of WGR Sports Radio 550 Buffalo previously noted that Kincaid had shed his red non-contact jersey at Friday's practice, and the tight end's full participation in the session paves the way for him to be in uniform Monday night against the Vikings. Over his last two games, Kincaid (who overall is tied for first among Bills in catches (27) and leads the team in receiving yards (401)) has logged an 11-124-1 receiving line, a pace that keeps him relevant from a fantasy perspective.
Verdict
vs 85.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 37% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)79supports it
Projection vs line37argues against it
Consistency24argues against it
Matchup0argues against it
Projection
68.5 REC YDS(×0.93 context)
L5 77.4 · L10 77.4 · med 86.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 38.0 · ceil 102.0
Matchup
F
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 105 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 205 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Season5 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Alternate lines — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
REC YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 60% | 3/5 | ||
| 60% | 3/5 | ||
| 60% | 3/5 | ||
| 85.5Current | 60% | 3/5 | |
| 40% | 2/5 | ||
| 40% | 2/5 | ||
| 40% | 2/5 |
Situational splits
Over 85.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home67%2/3Low
Away50%1/2Low
Days since last game
3+ days50%2/4Low
Next matchup — @ MIN
Nov 10, 2026
28thof 32 in REC YDS allowed to tight ends
MIN allows 18.2 REC YDS per game to tight ends (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 15 player-games
ToughThe read
Over his last 5 games, Dalton Kincaid has gone over 85.5 REC YDS 3 of 5 decided times (60%) — versus 60% across the full season. MIN has been a tough matchup for tight ends this season, allowing the 28th-most REC YDS of 32 teams (18.2 per game). His game-to-game REC YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 35.4), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
4 books @ 43.5 REC YDS- No-vig fair (over)
- 49.8%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 50.2%
Best Over
Caesars-107
-3.7% EV
Best Under
DraftKings-114
-5.7% EV
Model vs market (over)-12.5%
Our model puts the over at 37.2% vs the market's no-vig 49.8%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
Each book’s line and your season over rate at that number, vs the market consensus (43.5 REC YDS). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
over rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 60%.