Buffalo Bills

Dalton Kincaid Targets

Stats updated: Nov 1, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Dalton Kincaid has gone over 6.5 TGT in 2 of his last 5 decided games (40%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Utah
Experience: 5 seasons

Line

PrizePicksTargets · season avg 6.2 TGT · our line

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QuestionableConfirm Dalton Kincaid's status before the game.

Injury:: Chest

Fellow pass catchers DJ Moore (shoulder) and Keon Coleman (shoulder) also were limited Thursday, so the trio's statuses will need to be monitored ahead of Monday night's game against the Vikings. Over his last two outings, Kincaid has managed to make his mark from a fantasy perspective by logging an 11-124-1 receiving line in that span.

Verdict

vs 6.5 TGTTargets

Cool underFireFactor 37/100· model 66% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)79supports it

Projection vs line66supports it

Consistency51neutral

Matchup100supports it

Projection

5.7 TGT(×0.92 context)

L5 6.2 · L10 6.2 · med 6.0

Consistency

Steady

floor 5.4 · ceil 8.0

Matchup

defense vs role

Recent history runs under on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice. Questionable — confirm status before acting.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 55 games

40%over

2 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%

Last 105 games

40%over

2 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%

Last 205 games

40%over

2 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%

Season5 games

40%over

2 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%

Alternate lines — Targets (TGT)

TGT over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate TGT line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	80%	4/5
	80%	4/5
	80%	4/5
6.5Current	40%	2/5
	40%	2/5
	0%	0/5
	0%	0/5

Last 5 games — TGT per game vs. line 6.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 6.5 TGT by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home33%1/3Low

Away50%1/2Low

Days since last game

3+ days50%2/4Low

Next matchup — @ MIN

Nov 10, 2026

29thof 32 in TGT allowed to tight ends

MIN allows 2.9 TGT per game to tight ends (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 15 player-games

Tough

The read

Over his last 5 games, Dalton Kincaid has gone over 6.5 TGT 2 of 5 decided times (40%) — versus 40% across the full season. MIN has been a tough matchup for tight ends this season, allowing the 29th-most TGT of 32 teams (2.9 per game). His game-to-game TGT have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 1.8), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 40%.