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Indianapolis ColtsDaniel Jones Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)
Stats updated: Nov 1, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Daniel Jones has gone over 9.5 FS in 4 of his last 8 decided games (50%), measured against our typical-game line.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Duke
- Experience
- 9 seasons
Line
Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) · season avg 10.0 FS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutDaniel Jones isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
After a 42-7 loss to the Jaguars on Sunday during which Jones was benched in favor of Anthony Richardson in the fourth quarter, Steichen suggested that he would evaluate every position, including quarterback. While some changes could still be afoot for the 2-6 Colts, Steichen will apparently stand pat at center with Jones, at least for one more week. After a promising first season in Indianapolis was cut short by a torn Achilles, Jones has been a major disappointment since reaching a two-year, $88 million extension with the Colts in March. Through eight games, Jones ranks 29th among 30 qualified quarterbacks in QBR (39.6) and is tied with the Chargers' Justin Herbert for the NFL lead with 12 turnovers (nine interceptions, three lost fumbles).
Verdict
vs 9.5 FSFantasy Score (PrizePicks)No readFireFactor 0/100· model 49% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)51neutral
Projection vs line49neutral
Consistency49neutral
Matchup50neutral
Projection
9.6 FS(×1.00 context)
L5 9.8 · L10 10.0 · med 9.5
Consistency
Variable
floor 8.6 · ceil 11.9
Matchup
C
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 108 games
50%over
4 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 22%–78%Last 208 games
50%over
4 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 22%–78%Season8 games
50%over
4 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 22%–78%Alternate lines — Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) (FS)
FS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 88% | 7/8 | ||
| 88% | 7/8 | ||
| 75% | 6/8 | ||
| 9.5Current | 50% | 4/8 | |
| 38% | 3/8 | ||
| 25% | 2/8 | ||
| 13% | 1/8 |
Situational splits
Over 9.5 FS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home67%2/3Low
Away40%2/5Low
Days since last game
3+ days43%3/7Low
Next matchup — vs DAL
Nov 8, 2026
18thof 32 in FS allowed to quarterbacks
DAL allows 16.4 FS per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 10 player-games
NeutralThe read
Over his last 8 games, Daniel Jones has gone over 9.5 FS 4 of 8 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. DAL has been a middling matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 18th-most FS of 32 teams (16.4 per game). His game-to-game FS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 3.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.
More Daniel Jones research
Daniel Jones — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
Jones Passing TDs→
Passing TDs hit rates and trends.
Jones Completions→
Completions hit rates and trends.
Jones Rushing Yards→
Rushing Yards hit rates and trends.
Defense vs Position→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
NFL Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.