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Indianapolis ColtsDaniel Jones Passing TDs
Stats updated: Nov 1, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Daniel Jones has gone over 0.5 PASS TD in 5 of his last 8 decided games (63%), measured against our typical-game line.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Duke
- Experience
- 9 seasons
Line
Passing TDs · season avg 0.6 PASS TD · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutDaniel Jones isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
After a 42-7 loss to the Jaguars on Sunday during which Jones was benched in favor of Anthony Richardson in the fourth quarter, Steichen suggested that he would evaluate every position, including quarterback. While some changes could still be afoot for the 2-6 Colts, Steichen will apparently stand pat at center with Jones, at least for one more week. After a promising first season in Indianapolis was cut short by a torn Achilles, Jones has been a major disappointment since reaching a two-year, $88 million extension with the Colts in March. Through eight games, Jones ranks 29th among 30 qualified quarterbacks in QBR (39.6) and is tied with the Chargers' Justin Herbert for the NFL lead with 12 turnovers (nine interceptions, three lost fumbles).
Verdict
vs 0.5 PASS TDPassing TDsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 53% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)83supports it
Projection vs line53neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Matchup75supports it
Projection
0.6 PASS TD(×1.04 context)
L5 0.4 · L10 0.6 · med 1.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 0.0 · ceil 1.0
Matchup
B
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Book links are referral links — we may earn a commission. It never affects the numbers on this page.
Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 108 games
63%over
5 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 31%–86%Last 208 games
63%over
5 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 31%–86%Season8 games
63%over
5 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 31%–86%Alternate lines — Passing TDs (PASS TD)
PASS TD over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5Current | 63% | 5/8 | |
| 0% | 0/8 | ||
| 0% | 0/8 | ||
| 0% | 0/8 |
Situational splits
Over 0.5 PASS TD by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home100%3/3Low
Away40%2/5Low
Days since last game
3+ days57%4/7Low
Next matchup — vs DAL
Nov 8, 2026
12thof 32 in PASS TD allowed to quarterbacks
DAL allows 1.5 PASS TD per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 10 player-games
NeutralThe read
Over his last 8 games, Daniel Jones has gone over 0.5 PASS TD 5 of 8 decided times (63%) — versus 63% across the full season. DAL has been a middling matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 12th-most PASS TD of 32 teams (1.5 per game). His game-to-game PASS TD have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.5), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
5 books @ 1.5 PASS TD- No-vig fair (over)
- 40.8%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 59.2%
Best Over
Caesars+137
-3.3% EV
Best Under
FanDuel-166
-5.1% EV
Model vs market (over)+11.9%
Our model puts the over at 52.6% vs the market's no-vig 40.8%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Passing TDs (PASS TD)
Each book’s line and your season over rate at that number, vs the market consensus (1.5 PASS TD). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
over rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 63%.
More Daniel Jones research
Daniel Jones — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
Jones Completions→
Completions hit rates and trends.
Jones Rushing Yards→
Rushing Yards hit rates and trends.
Jones Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)→
Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) hit rates and trends.
Defense vs Position→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
NFL Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.