Buffalo Bills

Dante Pettis Receptions

Stats updated: Jan 4, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Dante Pettis has gone over 3.5 REC in 1 of his last 2 decided games (50%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Washington
Experience: 8 seasons

Line

PrizePicksReceptions · season avg 4.0 REC · our line

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OutDante Pettis isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

The 2018 second-rounder has played in 66 career games, racking up 92 catches for 1,231 yards and 13 touchdowns. He participated in eight regular-season contests for the Saints in 2025, collecting nine receptions for 127 yards, but he was primarily a special-teams player. The release of Jalen Virgil (undisclosed) enabled Pettis to earn a roster spot for training camp.

Verdict

vs 3.5 RECReceptions

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 57% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)50neutral

Projection vs line57neutral

Consistency58neutral

Projection

4.0 REC

L5 4.0 · L10 4.0 · med 4.0

Consistency

Steady

floor 3.4 · ceil 4.6

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 52 games

50%over

1 over · 1 under

Low confidence95% CI 9%–91%

Last 102 games

50%over

1 over · 1 under

Low confidence95% CI 9%–91%

Last 202 games

50%over

1 over · 1 under

Low confidence95% CI 9%–91%

Season2 games

50%over

1 over · 1 under

Low confidence95% CI 9%–91%

Alternate lines — Receptions (REC)

REC over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate REC line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	100%	2/2
	100%	2/2
	100%	2/2
3.5Current	50%	1/2
	50%	1/2
	0%	0/2
	0%	0/2

Last 2 games — REC per game vs. line 3.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 3.5 REC by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Away50%1/2Low

Days since last game

3+ days100%1/1Low

Last matchup — @ ATL

Jan 4, 2026

22ndof 32 in REC allowed to wide receivers

ATL allows 3.3 REC per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 56 player-games

Tough

The read

Over his last 2 games, Dante Pettis has gone over 3.5 REC 1 of 2 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. ATL has been a tough matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 22nd-most REC of 32 teams (3.3 per game). His game-to-game REC have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 1.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.