San Francisco 49ers

Deebo Samuel Sr. Receiving TDs

Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Deebo Samuel Sr. has gone over 0.5 REC TD in 3 of his last 10 decided games (30%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: South Carolina
Experience: 9 seasons

Line

PrizePicksReceiving TDs · season avg 0.4 REC TD · our line

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OutDeebo Samuel Sr. isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Samuel didn't have quite the success he did in Week 1 against the Rams, but San Francisco controlled this game from start to finish, and Brock Purdy needed to attempt only 22 passes. With the Niners continuing to lose wideouts to injuries, Samuel is locked into the WR2 role behind Mike Evans (hip) headed into next Sunday's home date with the Cardinals. Through two games, Samuel has nine catches for 79 yards and a touchdown on 11 targets. He's also rushed two times for 16 yards.

Verdict

vs 0.5 REC TDReceiving TDs

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 70% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)96supports it

Projection vs line70supports it

Consistency0argues against it

Projection

0.3 REC TD(×0.97 context)

L5 0.2 · L10 0.3 · med 0.0

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 0.0 · ceil 1.0

Matchup

small sample

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 55 games

20%over

1 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%

Last 1010 games

30%over

3 over · 7 under

Low confidence95% CI 11%–60%

Last 2017 games

35%over

6 over · 11 under

Medium confidence95% CI 17%–59%

Season17 games

35%over

6 over · 11 under

Medium confidence95% CI 17%–59%

Alternate lines — Receiving TDs (REC TD)

REC TD over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate REC TD line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
0.5Current	35%	6/17
	0%	0/17
	0%	0/17
	0%	0/17

Last 17 games — REC TD per game vs. line 0.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 0.5 REC TD by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home13%1/8Medium

Away56%5/9Low

Days since last game

3+ days38%6/16Medium

Next matchup — vs ARI

Sep 27, 2026

2ndof 32 in REC TD allowed to wide receivers

ARI allows 0.7 REC TD per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 6 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution

Favorable

The read

Over his last 10 games, Deebo Samuel Sr. has gone over 0.5 REC TD 3 of 10 decided times (30%) — versus 35% across the full season. ARI has been a favorable matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 2nd-most REC TD of 32 teams (0.7 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game REC TD have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.5), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 35%.