San Francisco 49ers

Deebo Samuel Targets

Stats updated: Jan 4, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Deebo Samuel has gone over 5.5 TGT in 5 of his last 10 decided games (50%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: South Carolina
Experience: 8 seasons

Line

PrizePicksTargets · season avg 6.4 TGT · our line

Save this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it

OutDeebo Samuel isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

General manager John Lynch relayed to reporters before Saturday's practice that Samuel is in "really good shape," and the veteran wideout backed up that endorsement with a strong practice Saturday. The addition of Samuel is a timely one, given that Ricky Pearsall is scheduled to undergo season-ending surgery over the next couple of weeks to repair a PCL injury in his right knee. Samuel figures to slide in as the 49ers' WR3 behind Mike Evans and Christian Kirk (calf), with De'Zhaun Stribling (hamstring) also competing for consistent snaps on offense.

Verdict

vs 5.5 TGTTargets

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 44% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)73supports it

Projection vs line44neutral

Consistency48neutral

Projection

5.0 TGT(×0.90 context)

L5 4.8 · L10 5.6 · med 5.5

Consistency

Variable

floor 5.0 · ceil 8.0

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 55 games

20%over

1 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%

Last 1010 games

50%over

5 over · 5 under

Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%

Last 2015 games

60%over

9 over · 6 under

Medium confidence95% CI 36%–80%

Season15 games

60%over

9 over · 6 under

Medium confidence95% CI 36%–80%

Alternate lines — Targets (TGT)

TGT over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate TGT line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	100%	15/15
	100%	15/15
	87%	13/15
5.5Current	60%	9/15
	33%	5/15
	27%	4/15
	13%	2/15

Last 15 games — TGT per game vs. line 5.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 5.5 TGT by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home43%3/7Low

Away75%6/8Low

Days since last game

3+ days57%8/14Low

With a teammate out

How this TGT line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.

Ricky Pearsall out · Right Knee - PCL Not Specified-1.2 TGT when he sits

Without (11g)

6.1 TGT

55% over 5.5

With (4g)

7.3 TGT

75% over 5.5

Last matchup — @ PHI

Jan 4, 2026

17thof 32 in TGT allowed to wide receivers

PHI allows 5.4 TGT per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 62 player-games

Neutral

The read

Over his last 10 games, Deebo Samuel has gone over 5.5 TGT 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 60% across the full season. PHI has been a middling matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 17th-most TGT of 32 teams (5.4 per game). His game-to-game TGT have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 2.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 60%.