Loading…
Philadelphia EaglesDeVonta Smith
#6 · WR · 6' 0" · 170 lb · 14 games
Stats updated: Jan 11, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Alabama
- Experience
- 7 seasons
Line
Receiving Yards · season avg 66.5 REC YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutDeVonta Smith isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Smith has spent the past four seasons in A.J. Brown's shadow, but the 2021 first-round pick is ready to lead Philadelphia's wide receiver room for the first time since Smith's rookie campaign, during which he led the team in catches, receiving yards and receiving touchdowns with a 64-916-5 regular-season line. Brown was traded to New England in June, and Smith is ready to take on an even larger role after exceeding 1,000 receiving yards in three of four regular seasons playing alongside Brown. "He's a special player that can continue to get even more targets," head coach Nick Sirianni said of Smith, per Zach Berman of The Athletic. "He's so capable of doing even more, and he's phenomenal, he is such a good football player."
Verdict
vs 56.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 50% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)53neutral
Projection vs line50neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
56.4 REC YDS(×0.99 context)
L5 44.4 · L10 65.5 · med 58.5
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 40.0 · ceil 86.0
Matchup
B
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
20%over
1 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%Last 1010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Last 2014 games
50%over
7 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 27%–73%Season14 games
50%over
7 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 27%–73%Alternate lines — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
REC YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50% | 7/14 | ||
| 50% | 7/14 | ||
| 50% | 7/14 | ||
| 56.5Current | 50% | 7/14 | |
| 50% | 7/14 | ||
| 50% | 7/14 | ||
| 50% | 7/14 |
Situational splits
Over 56.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home67%4/6Low
Away38%3/8Low
Days since last game
3+ days54%7/13Low
Last matchup — vs SF
Jan 11, 2026
9thof 32 in REC YDS allowed to wide receivers
SF allows 47.3 REC YDS per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 59 player-games
FavorableThe read
Over his last 10 games, DeVonta Smith has gone over 56.5 REC YDS 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. SF has been a favorable matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 9th-most REC YDS of 32 teams (47.3 per game). His game-to-game REC YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 41.5), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.