Philadelphia Eagles

DeVonta Smith Receptions

Stats updated: Jan 11, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

DeVonta Smith has gone over 5.5 REC in 5 of his last 10 decided games (50%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Alabama
Experience: 7 seasons

Line

PrizePicksReceptions · season avg 5.4 REC · our line

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OutDeVonta Smith isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Smith has spent the past four seasons in A.J. Brown's shadow, but the 2021 first-round pick is ready to lead Philadelphia's wide receiver room for the first time since Smith's rookie campaign, during which he led the team in catches, receiving yards and receiving touchdowns with a 64-916-5 regular-season line. Brown was traded to New England in June, and Smith is ready to take on an even larger role after exceeding 1,000 receiving yards in three of four regular seasons playing alongside Brown. "He's a special player that can continue to get even more targets," head coach Nick Sirianni said of Smith, per Zach Berman of The Athletic. "He's so capable of doing even more, and he's phenomenal, he is such a good football player."

Verdict

vs 5.5 RECReceptions

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 54% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)51neutral

Projection vs line54neutral

Consistency29argues against it

Projection

5.2 REC(×0.99 context)

L5 5.0 · L10 5.1 · med 5.5

Consistency

Variable

floor 4.0 · ceil 8.0

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 55 games

40%over

2 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%

Last 1010 games

50%over

5 over · 5 under

Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%

Last 2014 games

50%over

7 over · 7 under

Low confidence95% CI 27%–73%

Season14 games

50%over

7 over · 7 under

Low confidence95% CI 27%–73%

Alternate lines — Receptions (REC)

REC over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate REC line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	86%	12/14
	86%	12/14
	57%	8/14
5.5Current	50%	7/14
	29%	4/14
	29%	4/14
	7%	1/14

Last 14 games — REC per game vs. line 5.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 5.5 REC by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home67%4/6Low

Away38%3/8Low

Days since last game

3+ days54%7/13Low

Last matchup — vs SF

Jan 11, 2026

4thof 32 in REC allowed to wide receivers

SF allows 3.8 REC per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 59 player-games

Favorable

The read

Over his last 10 games, DeVonta Smith has gone over 5.5 REC 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. SF has been a favorable matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 4th-most REC of 32 teams (3.8 per game). His game-to-game REC have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 2.3), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.