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Cleveland BrownsDillon Gabriel
#8 · QB · 5' 11" · 205 lb · 5 games
Stats updated: Dec 21, 2025 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Oregon
- Experience
- 3 seasons
Line
Passing Yards · season avg 170.0 PASS YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutDillon Gabriel isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
While the signal-caller competition between Watson and Sanders was a top storyline during Browns' offseason program, Gabriel -- who started six games a rookie -- and 2026 sixth-rounder Taylen Green are also still in the mix at the position. For now, it appears as though Gabriel and Green are slated for compete for the No. 3 QB job this summer, though injuries or even an unexpected transaction in the future could alter that narrative.
Verdict
vs 167.5 PASS YDSPassing YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 53% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)79supports it
Projection vs line53neutral
Consistency66supports it
Projection
167.1 PASS YDS
L5 170.0 · L10 170.0 · med 167.0
Consistency
Steady
floor 148.0 · ceil 196.2
Matchup
C
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 105 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 205 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Season5 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Alternate lines — Passing Yards (PASS YDS)
PASS YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 60% | 3/5 | ||
| 60% | 3/5 | ||
| 60% | 3/5 | ||
| 167.5Current | 40% | 2/5 | |
| 40% | 2/5 | ||
| 40% | 2/5 | ||
| 40% | 2/5 |
Situational splits
Over 167.5 PASS YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home50%1/2Low
Away33%1/3Low
Days since last game
3+ days25%1/4Low
Last matchup — @ NYJ
Nov 9, 2025
17thof 32 in PASS YDS allowed to quarterbacks
NYJ allows 217.0 PASS YDS per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 17 player-games
NeutralThe read
Over his last 5 games, Dillon Gabriel has gone over 167.5 PASS YDS 2 of 5 decided times (40%) — versus 40% across the full season. NYJ has been a middling matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 17th-most PASS YDS of 32 teams (217.0 per game). His game-to-game PASS YDS have been fairly steady (σ ≈ 35.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 40%.