Cleveland Browns

Dillon Gabriel Passing TDs

Stats updated: Dec 21, 2025 — nightly box scores, not live.

Dillon Gabriel has gone over 1.5 PASS TD in 3 of his last 5 decided games (60%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Oregon
Experience: 3 seasons

Line

PrizePicksPassing TDs · season avg 1.2 PASS TD · our line

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OutDillon Gabriel isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

While the signal-caller competition between Watson and Sanders was a top storyline during Browns' offseason program, Gabriel -- who started six games a rookie -- and 2026 sixth-rounder Taylen Green are also still in the mix at the position. For now, it appears as though Gabriel and Green are slated for compete for the No. 3 QB job this summer, though injuries or even an unexpected transaction in the future could alter that narrative.

Verdict

vs 1.5 PASS TDPassing TDs

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 43% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)79supports it

Projection vs line43neutral

Consistency0argues against it

Projection

1.3 PASS TD

L5 1.2 · L10 1.2 · med 2.0

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 0.0 · ceil 2.0

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 55 games

60%over

3 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%

Last 105 games

60%over

3 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%

Last 205 games

60%over

3 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%

Season5 games

60%over

3 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%

Alternate lines — Passing TDs (PASS TD)

PASS TD over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate PASS TD line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	60%	3/5
1.5Current	60%	3/5
	0%	0/5
	0%	0/5
	0%	0/5

Last 5 games — PASS TD per game vs. line 1.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 1.5 PASS TD by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home50%1/2Low

Away67%2/3Low

Days since last game

3+ days50%2/4Low

Last matchup — @ NYJ

Nov 9, 2025

1stof 32 in PASS TD allowed to quarterbacks

NYJ allows 2.1 PASS TD per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 17 player-games

Favorable

The read

Over his last 5 games, Dillon Gabriel has gone over 1.5 PASS TD 3 of 5 decided times (60%) — versus 60% across the full season. NYJ has been a favorable matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 1st-most PASS TD of 32 teams (2.1 per game). His game-to-game PASS TD have been highly variable (σ ≈ 1.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 60%.