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Pittsburgh SteelersDK Metcalf
#4 · WR · 6' 4" · 229 lb · 7 games
Stats updated: Nov 1, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Ole Miss
- Experience
- 9 seasons
Line
Receiving Yards · season avg 52.3 REC YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutDK Metcalf isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Aaron Rodgers put up a season low in completions, pass attempts, passing yards and completion percentage Sunday, and Metcalf's production was part of the collateral damage. The veteran wideout did see a team high in targets, but the fact he did next to nothing with them led to season lows in catches and receiving yards. Metcalf has had a handful of splash plays over the first half of the season and has two games of more than 90 receiving yards, but he's averaging a career-low 11.5 yards per catch and has just a single touchdown reception heading into the Week 9 bye.
Verdict
vs 39.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 58% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)71supports it
Projection vs line58neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
47.7 REC YDS(×0.96 context)
L5 59.8 · L10 52.3 · med 40.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 27.8 · ceil 85.6
Matchup
D
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 107 games
57%over
4 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%Last 207 games
57%over
4 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%Season7 games
57%over
4 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%Alternate lines — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
REC YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 57% | 4/7 | ||
| 57% | 4/7 | ||
| 57% | 4/7 | ||
| 39.5Current | 57% | 4/7 | |
| 43% | 3/7 | ||
| 43% | 3/7 | ||
| 43% | 3/7 |
Situational splits
Over 39.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home33%1/3Low
Away75%3/4Low
Days since last game
3+ days50%3/6Low
Last matchup — vs CLE
Nov 1, 2026
26thof 32 in REC YDS allowed to wide receivers
CLE allows 37.4 REC YDS per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 29 player-games
ToughThe read
Over his last 7 games, DK Metcalf has gone over 39.5 REC YDS 4 of 7 decided times (57%) — versus 57% across the full season. CLE has been a tough matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 26th-most REC YDS of 32 teams (37.4 per game). His game-to-game REC YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 36.2), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 57%.