Pittsburgh Steelers

DK Metcalf Receiving TDs

Stats updated: Jan 13, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

DK Metcalf has gone over 0.5 REC TD in 1 of his last 10 decided games (10%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Ole Miss
Experience: 9 seasons

Line

PrizePicksReceiving TDs · season avg 0.3 REC TD · our line

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OutDK Metcalf isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Metcalf played just over 14 percent of his offensive snaps out of the slot last regular season, so perhaps the new coaching staff in Pittsburgh has a plan to get him more looks inside, which would translate to easier "layup" style catches and allow Metcalf to make plays with the ball in his hands. "We need him going," McCarthy said. "DK can change games." In his first season with Pittsburgh in 2025, Metcalf recorded a career-low 850 receiving yards on 59 catches across 15 regular-season contests. Headed into his second season with Aaron Rodgers, both players will aim for improved chemistry.

Verdict

vs 0.5 REC TDReceiving TDs

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 76% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it

Projection vs line76supports it

Consistency0argues against it

Projection

0.2 REC TD(×1.10 context)

L5 0.0 · L10 0.1 · med 0.0

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 0.0 · ceil 1.0

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 55 games

0%over

0 over · 5 under

Medium confidence95% CI 0%–43%

Last 1010 games

10%over

1 over · 9 under

Medium confidence95% CI 2%–40%

Last 2015 games

33%over

5 over · 10 under

Medium confidence95% CI 15%–58%

Season15 games

33%over

5 over · 10 under

Medium confidence95% CI 15%–58%

Alternate lines — Receiving TDs (REC TD)

REC TD over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate REC TD line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
0.5Current	33%	5/15
	0%	0/15
	0%	0/15
	0%	0/15

Last 15 games — REC TD per game vs. line 0.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 0.5 REC TD by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home50%4/8Low

Away14%1/7Low

Days since last game

3+ days36%5/14Medium

With a teammate out

How this REC TD line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.

Rico Dowdle out-0.3 REC TD when he sits

Without (6g)

0.2 REC TD

17% over 0.5

With (9g)

0.4 REC TD

44% over 0.5

Last matchup — vs HOU

Jan 13, 2026

29thof 32 in REC TD allowed to wide receivers

HOU allows 0.2 REC TD per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 68 player-games

Tough

The read

Over his last 10 games, DK Metcalf has gone over 0.5 REC TD 1 of 10 decided times (10%) — versus 33% across the full season. HOU has been a tough matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 29th-most REC TD of 32 teams (0.2 per game). His game-to-game REC TD have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.5), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 33%.