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Tampa Bay BuccaneersEmeka Egbuka Targets
Stats updated: Oct 18, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Emeka Egbuka has gone over 8.5 TGT in 3 of his last 5 decided games (60%), measured against our typical-game line.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Ohio State
- Experience
- 3 seasons
Top reads — this player & matchup
pick one to load it belowRanked by FireFactor for the next matchup, straight from the game logs.
Line
Targets · season avg 9.0 TGT · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
QuestionableQuestionableConfirm Emeka Egbuka's status before the game.
- Injury:
- Not Specified Foot Not Specified
Egbuka has missed the last two games due to a concussion and a foot injury, and while he's cleared the protocol for head injuries, the latter issue has lingered into this week. After opening Week 9 prep with a DNP on Wednesday, he's logged back-to-back full sessions, but head coach Todd Bowles also relayed to Greg Auman of Fox Sports on Friday that Egbuka will be a game-time decision. Considering the Buccaneers have an 8:20 p.m. ET kickoff Sunday, there won't be many options to pivot to if Egbuka ends up being inactive.
Verdict
vs 8.5 TGTTargetsNo readFireFactor 19/100· model 62% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)79supports it
Projection vs line62supports it
Consistency29argues against it
Matchup50neutral
Projection
10.0 TGT(×1.02 context)
L5 9.0 · L10 9.0 · med 9.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 5.8 · ceil 10.4
Matchup
C
defense vs role
Recent history runs over on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice. Questionable — confirm status before acting.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 105 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 205 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Season5 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Alternate lines — Targets (TGT)
TGT over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 80% | 4/5 | ||
| 60% | 3/5 | ||
| 60% | 3/5 | ||
| 8.5Current | 60% | 3/5 | |
| 20% | 1/5 | ||
| 20% | 1/5 | ||
| 20% | 1/5 |
Situational splits
Over 8.5 TGT by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home67%2/3Low
Away50%1/2Low
Days since last game
3+ days75%3/4Low
Next matchup — @ CHI
Nov 9, 2026
14thof 32 in TGT allowed to wide receivers
CHI allows 5.6 TGT per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 22 player-games
NeutralThe read
Over his last 5 games, Emeka Egbuka has gone over 8.5 TGT 3 of 5 decided times (60%) — versus 60% across the full season. CHI has been a middling matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 14th-most TGT of 32 teams (5.6 per game). His game-to-game TGT have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 3.8), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 60%.
More Emeka Egbuka research
Emeka Egbuka — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
Egbuka Receptions→
Receptions hit rates and trends.
Egbuka Receiving TDs→
Receiving TDs hit rates and trends.
Egbuka Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)→
Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) hit rates and trends.
Defense vs Position→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
NFL Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.