Kansas City Chiefs

Emmett Johnson Receiving TDs

Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Emmett Johnson has gone over 0.5 REC TD in 0 of his last 1 decided games (0%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Nebraska
Experience: Rookie

Line

PrizePicksReceiving TDs · season avg 0.0 REC TD · our line

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OutEmmett Johnson isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

"As it goes on, I think you get a nice balance between those two (Johnson and Kenneth Walker), and it keeps them even fresher as the season goes on," Reid said. Johnson handled just four touches on offense in Sunday night's overtime win against the Colts, but he turned them into 35 yards and has looked like a legitimate playmaker two weeks into the 2026 campaign. He's solidified himself as one of the premier fantasy bench stashes at running back behind Walker.

Verdict

vs 0.5 REC TDReceiving TDs

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 100% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it

Projection vs line95supports it

Projection

0.0 REC TD(×1.08 context)

L5 0.0 · L10 0.0 · med 0.0

Consistency

Variable

floor 0.0 · ceil 0.0

Matchup

small sample

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 51 game

0%over

0 over · 1 under

Low confidence95% CI 0%–79%

Last 101 game

0%over

0 over · 1 under

Low confidence95% CI 0%–79%

Last 201 game

0%over

0 over · 1 under

Low confidence95% CI 0%–79%

Season1 game

0%over

0 over · 1 under

Low confidence95% CI 0%–79%

Alternate lines — Receiving TDs (REC TD)

REC TD over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate REC TD line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
0.5Current	0%	0/1
	0%	0/1
	0%	0/1
	0%	0/1

Last 1 games — REC TD per game vs. line 0.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 0.5 REC TD by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home0%0/1Low

Next matchup — @ MIA

Sep 27, 2026

3rdof 32 in REC TD allowed to running backs

MIA allows 0.4 REC TD per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 5 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution

Favorable

The read

Over his last 1 games, Emmett Johnson has gone over 0.5 REC TD 0 of 1 decided times (0%) — versus 0% across the full season. MIA has been a favorable matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 3rd-most REC TD of 32 teams (0.4 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game REC TD have been variable (σ ≈ 0.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 0%.