New York Jets

Garrett Wilson Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)

Stats updated: Nov 9, 2025 — nightly box scores, not live.

Garrett Wilson has gone over 19.5 FS in 3 of his last 6 decided games (50%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Ohio State
Experience: 6 seasons

Line

PrizePicksFantasy Score (PrizePicks) · season avg 16.6 FS · our line

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OutGarrett Wilson isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

"This is probably one of the offenses that I'm going to look back on in a few years and love the most," Wilson said Thursday, adding that he appreciates the empowering nature of Reich's approach, which leaves more decisions in receivers' hands during plays. Wilson overcame subpar coaching and quarterback play to exceed 1,000 receiving yards in each of his first three NFL seasons, but the 2022 first-round pick had just 395 receiving yards in 2025 while missing 10 games due to a knee injury, from which Wilson has since recovered.

Verdict

vs 19.5 FSFantasy Score (PrizePicks)

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 65% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)52neutral

Projection vs line65supports it

Consistency26argues against it

Projection

15.5 FS(×1.01 context)

L5 15.4 · L10 16.6 · med 19.6

Consistency

Variable

floor 9.0 · ceil 22.5

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 55 games

40%over

2 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%

Last 106 games

50%over

3 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 19%–81%

Last 206 games

50%over

3 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 19%–81%

Season6 games

50%over

3 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 19%–81%

Alternate lines — Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) (FS)

FS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate FS line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	67%	4/6
	67%	4/6
	67%	4/6
19.5Current	50%	3/6
	33%	2/6
	33%	2/6
	20%	1/5

Last 6 games — FS per game vs. line 19.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 19.5 FS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home25%1/4Low

Away100%2/2Low

Days since last game

3+ days40%2/5Low

Last matchup — vs DEN

Oct 12, 2025

31stof 32 in FS allowed to wide receivers

DEN allows 8.0 FS per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 68 player-games

Tough

The read

Over his last 6 games, Garrett Wilson has gone over 19.5 FS 3 of 6 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. DEN has been a tough matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 31st-most FS of 32 teams (8.0 per game). His game-to-game FS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 7.3), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.