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New York JetsGeno Smith
#7 · QB · 6' 2" · 221 lb · 14 games
Stats updated: Dec 28, 2025 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- West Virginia
- Experience
- 15 seasons
Line
Passing Yards · season avg 211.3 PASS YDS · PrizePicks lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutGeno Smith isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Smith will likely dominate first-team reps leading up to the regular season, but the Jets will use training camp and preseason play to evaluate their backup options. Of the team's other quarterbacks, Klubnik probably has the best chance of seeing the field eventually in 2026, as the Jets could be motivated to evaluate their 2026 fourth-round pick in meaningful game situations if the team falls out of playoff contention again on the heels of a 3-14 season in 2025.
Verdict
vs 199.5 PASS YDSPassing YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 62% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)51neutral
Projection vs line62supports it
Consistency45neutral
Projection
175.3 PASS YDS(×0.90 context)
L5 188.6 · L10 201.0 · med 188.5
Consistency
Variable
floor 156.2 · ceil 284.4
Matchup
C
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Last 2014 games
50%over
7 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 27%–73%Season14 games
50%over
7 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 27%–73%Alternate lines — Passing Yards (PASS YDS)
PASS YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50% | 7/14 | ||
| 50% | 7/14 | ||
| 50% | 7/14 | ||
| 199.5Current | 50% | 7/14 | |
| 50% | 7/14 | ||
| 43% | 6/14 | ||
| 43% | 6/14 |
Situational splits
Over 199.5 PASS YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home38%3/8Low
Away67%4/6Low
Days since last game
3+ days46%6/13Low
With a teammate out
How this PASS YDS line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Adonai Mitchell out-38.6 PASS YDS when he sits
Without (4g)
183.8 PASS YDS
25% over 199.5
With (10g)
222.3 PASS YDS
60% over 199.5
Isaiah Davis out-18.0 PASS YDS when he sits
Without (7g)
202.3 PASS YDS
43% over 199.5
With (7g)
220.3 PASS YDS
57% over 199.5
Last matchup — vs NYG
Dec 28, 2025
20thof 32 in PASS YDS allowed to quarterbacks
NYG allows 211.9 PASS YDS per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 18 player-games
NeutralThe read
Over his last 10 games, Geno Smith has gone over 199.5 PASS YDS 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. NYG has been a middling matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 20th-most PASS YDS of 32 teams (211.9 per game). His game-to-game PASS YDS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 70.2), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.