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New York JetsGeno Smith
#7 · QB · 6' 2" · 221 lb · 7 games
Stats updated: Nov 1, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- West Virginia
- Experience
- 15 seasons
Line
Passing Yards · season avg 256.3 PASS YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutGeno Smith isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Smith threw second-quarter touchdown passes of 18 yards to Isaiah Williams and 12 yards to Adonai Mitchell while coming 10 yards shy of his second 300-yard passing performance of the season. The veteran QB had a chance to orchestrate a game-winning drive against his former team, but the Jets' comeback bid came up short when Smith threw an end-zone interception from the Raiders' 35-yard line with seven seconds remaining. Smith has been picked off in each of his last three outings after going without an interception through five starts to open his second tenure with the Jets. He'll take a 12:3 TD:INT into a Week 9 trip to Kansas City.
Verdict
vs 251.5 PASS YDSPassing YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 39% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)75supports it
Projection vs line39argues against it
Consistency71supports it
Projection
240.2 PASS YDS(×0.91 context)
L5 266.4 · L10 256.3 · med 252.0
Consistency
Steady
floor 221.4 · ceil 289.4
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
80%over
4 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 38%–96%Last 107 games
57%over
4 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%Last 207 games
57%over
4 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%Season7 games
57%over
4 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%Alternate lines — Passing Yards (PASS YDS)
PASS YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 57% | 4/7 | ||
| 57% | 4/7 | ||
| 57% | 4/7 | ||
| 251.5Current | 57% | 4/7 | |
| 43% | 3/7 | ||
| 43% | 3/7 | ||
| 43% | 3/7 |
Situational splits
Over 251.5 PASS YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home50%2/4Low
Away67%2/3Low
Days since last game
3+ days67%4/6Low
Next matchup — @ KC
Nov 8, 2026
17thof 32 in PASS YDS allowed to quarterbacks
KC allows 228.4 PASS YDS per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 7 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
NeutralThe read
Over his last 7 games, Geno Smith has gone over 251.5 PASS YDS 4 of 7 decided times (57%) — versus 57% across the full season. KC has been a middling matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 17th-most PASS YDS of 32 teams (228.4 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game PASS YDS have been fairly steady (σ ≈ 44.1), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 57%.