New York Jets

Geno Smith Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)

Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Geno Smith has gone over 13 FS in 5 of his last 9 decided games (56%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: West Virginia
Experience: 15 seasons

Line

PrizePicksFantasy Score (PrizePicks) · season avg 13.2 FS · PrizePicks line

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OutGeno Smith isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Smith navigated the Jets to a 17-7 lead with 11:04 remaining in the fourth quarter, but New York's offense stalled down the stretch, with a turnover on downs sandwiched around two punts on the team's final three possessions. Making his first home start for the Jets in nearly a decade, Smith threw his first touchdown pass of the season on a five-yard connection with Garrett Wilson in the third quarter. Smith hasn't turned the ball over but has just 462 passing yards heading into a Week 3 road game against the Lions, who allowed three touchdown passes apiece to Tyler Shough and Josh Allen.

Verdict

vs 13 FSFantasy Score (PrizePicks)

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 66% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)58neutral

Projection vs line66supports it

Consistency26argues against it

Projection

10.6 FS(×0.84 context)

L5 11.6 · L10 13.2 · med 13.5

Consistency

Variable

floor 9.0 · ceil 15.6

Matchup

small sample

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 55 games

40%over

2 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%

Last 1010 games

56%over

5 over · 4 under · 1 push

Low confidence95% CI 27%–81%

Last 2016 games

47%over

7 over · 8 under · 1 push

Low confidence95% CI 25%–70%

Season16 games

47%over

7 over · 8 under · 1 push

Low confidence95% CI 25%–70%

Last 16 games — FS per game vs. line 13.0. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 13 FS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home44%4/9Low

Away50%3/6Low

Days since last game

3+ days43%6/14Low

Next matchup — @ DET

Sep 27, 2026

1stof 32 in FS allowed to quarterbacks

DET allows 33.0 FS per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 2 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution

Favorable

The read

Over his last 10 games, Geno Smith has gone over 13 FS 5 of 9 decided times (56%) — versus 47% across the full season. DET has been a favorable matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 1st-most FS of 32 teams (33.0 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game FS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 5.9), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 47%.