Cleveland Browns

Harold Fannin Jr. Receiving TDs

Stats updated: Dec 28, 2025 — nightly box scores, not live.

Harold Fannin Jr. has gone over 0.5 REC TD in 4 of his last 10 decided games (40%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Bowling Green
Experience: 3 seasons

Line

PrizePicksReceiving TDs · season avg 0.3 REC TD · our line

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OutHarold Fannin Jr. isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Per Daniel Oyefusi of ESPN.com, Fannin said he missed the Browns' offseason workout program due to a procedure to address a groin injury he sustained in Week 17 of the 2025 campaign. However, the tight end noted Wednesday that he was cleared about two weeks ago and is thus ready to reclaim his role as the team's top option at his position, a context that should result in weekly fantasy utility for the 2025 third-rounder, regardless of who between Deshaun Watson and Shedeur Sanders wins the team's ongoing QB competition.

Verdict

vs 0.5 REC TDReceiving TDs

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 62% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it

Projection vs line62supports it

Consistency0argues against it

Projection

0.5 REC TD(×1.10 context)

L5 0.6 · L10 0.4 · med 0.0

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 0.0 · ceil 1.0

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 55 games

60%over

3 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%

Last 1010 games

40%over

4 over · 6 under

Low confidence95% CI 17%–69%

Last 2013 games

31%over

4 over · 9 under

Medium confidence95% CI 13%–58%

Season13 games

31%over

4 over · 9 under

Medium confidence95% CI 13%–58%

Alternate lines — Receiving TDs (REC TD)

REC TD over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate REC TD line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
0.5Current	31%	4/13
	0%	0/13
	0%	0/13
	0%	0/13

Last 13 games — REC TD per game vs. line 0.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 0.5 REC TD by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home50%3/6Low

Away14%1/7Low

Days since last game

3+ days33%4/12Low

With a teammate out

How this REC TD line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.

Shedeur Sanders out-0.4 REC TD when he sits

Without (7g)

0.1 REC TD

14% over 0.5

With (6g)

0.5 REC TD

50% over 0.5

Dillon Gabriel out+0.2 REC TD when he sits

Without (5g)

0.4 REC TD

40% over 0.5

With (8g)

0.3 REC TD

25% over 0.5

Last matchup — vs BUF

Dec 21, 2025

27thof 32 in REC TD allowed to tight ends

BUF allows 0.1 REC TD per game to tight ends (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 30 player-games

Tough

The read

Over his last 10 games, Harold Fannin Jr. has gone over 0.5 REC TD 4 of 10 decided times (40%) — versus 31% across the full season. BUF has been a tough matchup for tight ends this season, allowing the 27th-most REC TD of 32 teams (0.1 per game). His game-to-game REC TD have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.5), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 31%.