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New York GiantsIsaiah Likely
#80 · TE · 6' 4" · 241 lb · 7 games
Stats updated: Jan 5, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Coastal Carolina
- Experience
- 6 seasons
Line
Receiving Yards · season avg 35.6 REC YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutIsaiah Likely isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
According to Fennelly, Likely and Jaxson Dart have already developed a connection during offseason workouts. With Likely expected to be detached from the line of scrimmage, he shouldn't be asked to block much and can focus on making plays in the passing game. Theo Johnson is expected to handle most of the traditional tight end duties for New York. Likely could soak up a good chunk of the short-area, middle-field targets vacated by Wan'Dale Robinson, who left for the Titans in free agency.
Verdict
vs 24.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 62% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)71supports it
Projection vs line62supports it
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
34.7 REC YDS(×0.98 context)
L5 34.4 · L10 35.6 · med 25.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 15.4 · ceil 53.4
Matchup
D
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 107 games
57%over
4 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%Last 207 games
57%over
4 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%Season7 games
57%over
4 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%Alternate lines — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
REC YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 57% | 4/7 | ||
| 57% | 4/7 | ||
| 57% | 4/7 | ||
| 24.5Current | 57% | 4/7 | |
| 43% | 3/7 | ||
| 43% | 3/7 | ||
| 29% | 2/7 |
Situational splits
Over 24.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home67%2/3Low
Away50%2/4Low
Days since last game
3+ days50%3/6Low
Last matchup — @ GB
Dec 28, 2025
26thof 32 in REC YDS allowed to tight ends
GB allows 23.3 REC YDS per game to tight ends (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 35 player-games
ToughThe read
Over his last 7 games, Isaiah Likely has gone over 24.5 REC YDS 4 of 7 decided times (57%) — versus 57% across the full season. GB has been a tough matchup for tight ends this season, allowing the 26th-most REC YDS of 32 teams (23.3 per game). His game-to-game REC YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 28.6), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 57%.