New York Giants

Isaiah Likely Targets

Stats updated: Jan 5, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Isaiah Likely has gone over 3.5 TGT in 4 of his last 7 decided games (57%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Coastal Carolina
Experience: 6 seasons

Line

PrizePicksTargets · season avg 4.3 TGT · our line

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OutIsaiah Likely isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

According to Fennelly, Likely and Jaxson Dart have already developed a connection during offseason workouts. With Likely expected to be detached from the line of scrimmage, he shouldn't be asked to block much and can focus on making plays in the passing game. Theo Johnson is expected to handle most of the traditional tight end duties for New York. Likely could soak up a good chunk of the short-area, middle-field targets vacated by Wan'Dale Robinson, who left for the Titans in free agency.

Verdict

vs 3.5 TGTTargets

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 59% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)68supports it

Projection vs line59neutral

Consistency50neutral

Projection

4.2 TGT(×0.98 context)

L5 4.2 · L10 4.3 · med 4.0

Consistency

Steady

floor 3.0 · ceil 5.8

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 55 games

40%over

2 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%

Last 107 games

57%over

4 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%

Last 207 games

57%over

4 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%

Season7 games

57%over

4 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%

Alternate lines — Targets (TGT)

TGT over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate TGT line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	100%	7/7
	100%	7/7
	100%	7/7
3.5Current	57%	4/7
	43%	3/7
	29%	2/7
	0%	0/7

Last 7 games — TGT per game vs. line 3.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 3.5 TGT by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home67%2/3Low

Away50%2/4Low

Days since last game

3+ days50%3/6Low

Last matchup — @ GB

Dec 28, 2025

10thof 32 in TGT allowed to tight ends

GB allows 3.8 TGT per game to tight ends (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 35 player-games

Favorable

The read

Over his last 7 games, Isaiah Likely has gone over 3.5 TGT 4 of 7 decided times (57%) — versus 57% across the full season. GB has been a favorable matchup for tight ends this season, allowing the 10th-most TGT of 32 teams (3.8 per game). His game-to-game TGT have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 1.3), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 57%.