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New York GiantsIsaiah Likely Targets
Stats updated: Sep 21, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Isaiah Likely has gone over 5.5 TGT in 4 of his last 9 decided games (44%), measured against our typical-game line.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Coastal Carolina
- Experience
- 6 seasons
Line
Targets · season avg 5.3 TGT · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutIsaiah Likely isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Likely's first catch came on one of Jaxson Dart's three completions before he exited the game with a knee injury, and the veteran tight end remained an integral component of the air attack once Jameis Winston took over. Likely's reception and target totals were team-high figures, and he's quickly generated a 13-111-2 line on 18 targets over his first two games in a Giants uniform heading into a Week 3 home matchup against the Titans on Sunday.
Verdict
vs 5.5 TGTTargetsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 39% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)62supports it
Projection vs line39argues against it
Consistency28argues against it
Projection
6.7 TGT(×1.07 context)
L5 6.6 · L10 5.3 · med 5.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 3.0 · ceil 6.8
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
80%over
4 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 38%–96%Last 109 games
44%over
4 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 19%–73%Last 209 games
44%over
4 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 19%–73%Season9 games
44%over
4 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 19%–73%Alternate lines — Targets (TGT)
TGT over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 100% | 9/9 | ||
| 67% | 6/9 | ||
| 56% | 5/9 | ||
| 5.5Current | 44% | 4/9 | |
| 22% | 2/9 | ||
| 22% | 2/9 | ||
| 11% | 1/9 |
Situational splits
Over 5.5 TGT by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home75%3/4Low
Away20%1/5Low
Days since last game
3+ days50%4/8Low
Next matchup — vs TEN
Sep 27, 2026
25thof 32 in TGT allowed to tight ends
TEN allows 2.4 TGT per game to tight ends (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 5 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
ToughThe read
Over his last 9 games, Isaiah Likely has gone over 5.5 TGT 4 of 9 decided times (44%) — versus 44% across the full season. TEN has been a tough matchup for tight ends this season, allowing the 25th-most TGT of 32 teams (2.4 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game TGT have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 2.3), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 44%.
More Isaiah Likely research
Isaiah Likely — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
Likely Receptions→
Receptions hit rates and trends.
Likely Receiving TDs→
Receiving TDs hit rates and trends.
Likely Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)→
Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) hit rates and trends.
Defense vs Position→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
NFL Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.