Arizona Cardinals

Jacoby Brissett Passing TDs

Stats updated: Jan 4, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Jacoby Brissett has gone over 1.5 PASS TD in 8 of his last 10 decided games (80%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: NC State
Experience: 12 seasons

Line

PrizePicksPassing TDs · season avg 1.9 PASS TD · our line

Save this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it

OutJacoby Brissett isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Per Ian Rapoport of NFL Network, Brissett's new deal will increase his 2026 compensation to $15.5 million guaranteed and up to $21 million with incentives, meaning he'll still become an unrestricted free agent after this season. It ends a stalemate in contract negotiations between the veteran quarterback and the Cardinals that started in mid-April right before the 2026 NFL Draft, which led to Brissett sitting out of OTAs before reporting to mandatory minicamp and training camp. Now that talks have resolved with a restructured contract, Brissett can focus his efforts toward training camp and strengthening his hold on the starting quarterback job, with Gardner Minshew and rookie third-round pick Carson Beck battling for the backup role. Brissett is coming off a career year in 2025, when he completed 64.9 percent of passes for 3,366 yards, 23 touchdowns and eight interceptions across 14 regular-season games (12 starts).

Verdict

vs 1.5 PASS TDPassing TDs

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 64% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it

Projection vs line64supports it

Consistency57neutral

Projection

1.7 PASS TD(×0.91 context)

L5 2.0 · L10 1.9 · med 2.0

Consistency

Steady

floor 2.0 · ceil 2.0

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 55 games

80%over

4 over · 1 under

Low confidence95% CI 38%–96%

Last 1010 games

80%over

8 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 49%–94%

Last 2012 games

83%over

10 over · 2 under

Medium confidence95% CI 55%–95%

Season12 games

83%over

10 over · 2 under

Medium confidence95% CI 55%–95%

Alternate lines — Passing TDs (PASS TD)

PASS TD over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate PASS TD line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	100%	12/12
1.5Current	83%	10/12
	8%	1/12
	0%	0/12
	0%	0/12

Last 12 games — PASS TD per game vs. line 1.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 1.5 PASS TD by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home60%3/5Low

Away100%7/7Medium

Days since last game

3+ days82%9/11Medium

With a teammate out

How this PASS TD line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.

Tyler Allgeier out+0.5 PASS TD when he sits

Without (5g)

2.2 PASS TD

100% over 1.5

With (7g)

1.7 PASS TD

71% over 1.5

Last matchup — @ LAR

Jan 4, 2026

15thof 32 in PASS TD allowed to quarterbacks

LAR allows 1.5 PASS TD per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 22 player-games

Neutral

The read

Over his last 10 games, Jacoby Brissett has gone over 1.5 PASS TD 8 of 10 decided times (80%) — versus 83% across the full season. LAR has been a middling matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 15th-most PASS TD of 32 teams (1.5 per game). His game-to-game PASS TD have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 0.5), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 83%.